Feb 082016
 

The global stock market is so vast that the more eyes there are to spot the approaching end of a five-wave pattern, the better off we are! I should thank Bob D for drawing my attention to Freeport-McMoran Inc (FCX) -NYSE. The following discussion covers the Elliott Wave analysis of this stock. You will see how the various twists and turns in FCX were all following the dictates of the Elliott Wave Principle.

When we commence the analysis of any instrument, it is always better to start with the bigger picture. So we commence our study with the weekly chart of FReeport-McMorRan Inc.You got to remember that the goal of any analysis is to provide you with a framework to base your investment or trade. Such a framework will give you an orderly way to approach the market. It doesn’t guarantee you profits, but you will know quite early whether you are on the right track or not, and that knowledge alone is well worth the time you invest in this process. So lets get started with our first Elliott Wave chart. I suggest that you keep opening each chart in a new tab to save you time.

On 20 January 2016, FCX made a low of $3.52. We see from the chart below that a complex correction has developed from the high near $61, probably unfolding as a double zigzag. The end of the second zigzag was projected to land at a 138.2% projection just a shade above the $4 mark. Perhaps the 3.52 low marked the end of this major correction?

FCX4Feb2016a

Now let us quickly go down to the more recent moves. Notice the green arrow in the chart above? I suggest we start our next wave count from there, as it looks like a pivot point.Two things stand out clearly. We can make out a set of five waves from near the $24, and to our delight, there is a further set of 5 minor waves inside the fifth wave that is quite clear.

FCX4Feb2016b

In order to give us more comfort that about this fifth wave, we will delve deeper to see if the waves hold some Fibonacci ratio relationship to each other. The chart below shows that sub wave ii corrected the sub wave i by 50%

FCX4Feb2016c

Next we see that the sub wave iii was extended. An extension is when an impulse wave travels more than 161.8% (Note: this is my own interpretation of when to label a wave as extended). In this case, sub wave iii went as far as 223.6% of wave i.

FCX4Feb2016d

You might remember from your reading of my book ‘Five Waves to Financial Freedom” that when a third wave is extended, it is normal for the fourth wave to be short and typically correct to just 23.6% of the just completed third wave. You can see from the Elliott wave chart of Freeport-McMoRan Inc below that sub wave iv went exactly to the 23.6% retracement target. This sort of reinforces the feeling that we are on the right track!

FCX4Feb2016e

And finally, we see that the fifth wave was exactly 50% of the distance from the point ‘0’ or the starting point of subwave i to the terminal point of subwave iii. This is again quite text-book-like, and is something to be looked at in wonderment!

FCX4Feb2016f

I leave you with two more charts for careful consideration. My Elliott Wave comments are on the charts themselves. Remember, this blog aims to teach you some of my methods. I am not making a recommendation here. But if you are patient, and if you can identify 5 waves up from the bottom, then buying into a 50% to 61.8% pull back is a most logical thing to do, especially if you are a believer that Elliot Wave Principle works! In case you are not convinced, simply look at the hundreds of other examples in this blog! All the best.

FCX4Feb2016g

FCX4Feb2016h

Dec 262015
 

As many of you are aware, I offer a consulting service at WaveTimes.net. Occasionally I share some of those cases with you to help you learn Elliott Wave analysis. The following is a consultation I did with a trader based in Singapore who wanted to discuss the outlook for USDSGD. Please note that wave counts are always a work-in-progress. While it worked out as anticipated at that time (the analysis was done on October 14, 2015 when USDSGD was trading around 1.3870) the outcome from the current levels needs a fresh look.

Establishing the broad big picture in USDSGD from an Elliott Wave stance

Establishing the broad big picture in USDSGD  from an Elliott Wave stance

Establishing the broad big picture in USDSGD from an Elliott Wave stance



Figuring out weaknesses, if any, in initial analysis

sgd14Oct15b

Considering alternative wave counts and deciding which is appropriate
sgd14Oct15c

Using Fibonacci Ratio Analysis to validate our wave counts
sgd14Oct15d

Seeing if we are consistent in our approach
sgd14Oct15e

Fifth Wave target using methods taught in Five Waves to Financial Freedom – Elliott Wave book

sgd14Oct15f

Illustrating how each impulse wave is made up of five sub waves
sgd14Oct15g

Showcasing the ‘fit’ of the waves in the bigger picture – Elliott Wave structure

sgd14Oct15h

Fibonacci Ratio Relationships work even within sub waves!
sgd14Oct15i

Elliott’s principle of alternation
sgd14Oct15j

Detailing the finer aspects in intra-day Elliott Wave charts
sgd14Oct15k

Anticipating ending points of USDSGD in the near term

sgd14Oct15l

Formulating a recommendation considering potential moves
sgd14Oct15m

In case you are wondering how it turned out, well here is a screen shot as of today, with the key turning points after 14 Oct marked out for you.

Elliott Waves do work in USDSGD as can be seen here
USDSGD26Dec2015

I hope you enjoyed the learning experience in this post. It will be great to see this shared with your friends in the market place. Best wishes, Ramki

Dec 202015
 

In this post you will learn how to trade Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) using Elliott Wave analysis. I had sent these charts to members of the exclusive club on November 24, 2015 when the stock was around $559.The main idea was there was a good chance for a move lower after recovering to around $585. The stock reached $585.80 the following day. It moved slightly above 585 on December 1 and 2, but on both days it closed below $585. And then we got a 12% move down to $515 on 7 Dec.

This blog aims to share some of my techniques with you, so you too could refine and improve your trading style. Used in conjunction with my book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” the numerous charts that are presented in WaveTimes will open your eyes to what is possible using Elliott Waves. Enjoy and share with your friends.

Chipotle Mexican Grill in Wave 2
Chipotle Mexican Grill in Wave 2

Chipotle Mexican Grill in Wave 4
Chipotle Mexican Grill in Wave 4

Chipotle Mexican Grill reaches Elliott Wave 5 target
Chipotle Mexican Grill reaches Elliott Wave 5 target

Chipotle Mexican Grill sub waves illustrated
Chipotle Mexican Grill sub waves illustrated

Chipotle Mexican Grill reaches target of sub wave 5 inside wave 5
Chipotle Mexican Grill reaches target of sub wave 5 inside wave 5

Analysis of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock after a five wave move is completed
Analysis of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock after a five wave move is completed

Dramatic wave 3 in Chipotle
Dramatic wave 3 in Chipotle

Witness how a day trader can benefit from Elliott Waves using Chipotle stock as an example
Witness how a day trader can benefit from Elliott Waves using Chipotle stock as an example

See how Elliott Waves and Fibonacci ratio analysis tie in using Chipotle Stock as an example
See how Elliott Waves and Fibonacci ratio analysis tie in using Chipotle Stock as an example

How to anticpate the next move in Chipotle using Elliott Wave Analysis
How to anticpate the next move in Chipotle using Elliott Wave Analysis

Nov 232015
 

As many of you know, I also have a professional website which caters to the needs of high net-worth individuals and experienced traders. This website is at www.wavetimes.net. I have today posted an example of a consulting assignment in that website, and thought that you will appreciate a link to that post.

http://wavetimes.net/news-20151123-recent_consulting_outcomes

I will try and post a few more examples in the coming weeks for your learning. This blog is a living book, an extension of Five Waves to Financial Freedom [ or vice versa :) ]. Enjoy!

Nov 062015
 

This post contains Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver, using the continuous futures charts of Silver traded in the Multi Commodity Exchange of India.

I prepared these Elliott Wave charts for a client back in September 2015. This is not the entire pack, but most of it is here. Use these charts to learn! Don’t use them to trade the market at the current levels. Remember, Elliott Waves are only an aid to your trading. It is a very dynamic thing. If you like what you see here, tell your friends. Unlike wavetimes.net which is a paid service, this blog is entirely free. It exists solely to teach you some of my techniques. So go ahead and enjoy.I suggest that you right click on each image and open them in a different tabs.That way, you can go back and forth easily.

mcx silver-18Sep15a

mcx silver-18Sep15b

mcx silver-18Sep15c

mcx silver-18Sep15d

mcx silver-18Sep15e

mcx silver-18Sep15f

mcx silver-18Sep15g

mcx silver-18Sep15h

Nov 062015
 

I will post you a couple of charts that I prepared for my old friend Bob D (remember the person who gave me so much of his valuable time in proof reading your favorite book, Five Waves to Financial Freedom?)
With Elliott Waves, you should never struggle to count the waves. When it becomes hard, just step back and look at the bigger picture. The best trades are done when you are able to see the waves easily and clearly, while the rest of the world is stressing out about the next few points. You, on the other hand, having read and understood my way of approaching the market, would place your bids or offers near the anticipated targets and wait for the fruit to land on your lap! Of course, occasionally you will get a lemon, but often enough it will be a sweet fruit.

Here are the Elliott Wave charts of WalMart. The second chart shows the third wave in detail. As I point out, you really don’t need to go very deep! Just keep it simple. All the best.

The Fifth Wave of Wall Mart has met its initial target

The Fifth Wave of WalMart has met its initial target

Each impulse wave is made up of five sub waves

Sub waves inside the third wave of WalMart

Sep 052015
 

Elliott Wave analysis works in all freely traded markets. The last time I offered you my Elliott Wave analysis of Egypt’s equity index, EGX30, it was back in August 2012. You can access that blog post by looking at the menu at the top of WaveTimes, under ‘Equities, Index, Africa, Egypt’.
You will see how we identified that the Egyptian index was likely to make significant gains. At that time, the index was trading at 5049. A lot of water has since flown down the Nile, but the Egyptian stock market almost doubled. I am sure a lot of investors made handsome profits in individual stocks.
However, the inevitable Elliott Wave correction set in once the five wave cycle was completed. If you had read my book Elliott Wave book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom’ you will be able to spot how so many of the observations there has played out in the Egyptian Stock Index or EGX30 index.

In the following Elliott Wave charts, I demonstrate some of the salient points. Remember that this blog exists as a resource for the student of Elliott Waves. Whether you are a professional trader, a casual investor or a serious student of Elliott Waves, the examples available here will fascinate you and help you better understand the nature of financial markets and how you could anticipate the market turns. So without any further ado, present you the charts of the Egyptian Stock market index and how Elliott Wave analysis was so powerful in its play.

Egypt's stock index traced an extended third wave

Egypt’s stock index traced an extended third wave


Observe how sub wave 5 inside the 3rd wave was equal to sub wave 1

Observe how sub wave 5 inside the 3rd wave was equal to sub wave 1

wave 4 was shallow and came between 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 3

wave 4 was shallow and came between 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 3

wave 5 was equal to wave 1

wave 5 was equal to wave 1

Once the 5 wave move ended, a huge correction started

Once the 5 wave move ended, a huge correction started

Now that you have seen how Elliott Waves work, go back to FWTFF and try and see if you could figure out the likely ending point of the on going correction. Good luck.

Jul 102015
 

I have been seeing several queries on the blog asking if the move to 7700 (as discussed on CNBC) is still coming, now that we have rallied up in 5 waves. So let’s try and clear up the air a bit.

The real goal of any analysis is to make money. Some people, however, want to keep proving to themselves that Elliott Waves work ( or doesn’t work). Their goal is to keep producing accurate wave counts and are happy if they get it right. Some are delighted if they can spot an occasion where someone else has got it really wrong :)

Remember an important point folks. NO ONE CAN TELL THE FUTURE. What we are trying to do here, with Elliott Waves, is to provide ourselves with a framework to base our trades upon. Knowing we are going to recover from around the time I gave the interview is sufficient value to make money in itself. Knowing that 8420 was a key level is additional money in the bag. (I don’t read others’ analysis, but you probably know how many others anticipated 8420 as a key level).

So what about the expectation for 7700? Is that coming? The answer is something like the following. Elliott Wave analysis is about the only approach that allows you to adjust your market expectation as you get new clues. It is a dynamic approach. You cannot draw a few lines and expect the market to follow your command. Instead, you listen to it and make changes to what you should do next.

Members of my Exclusive Club did not receive any trade ideas on the Nifty during this period. Why is that? We should know which battles to take part and which one to side step. But we did make over 13% during the rally to 8420 in one stock. Actually it moved 20%, but as conservative traders, we were content with taking 13%.

Don’t forget that I also discussed Tata Motors in that interview!

NIfty 10Jul15

Jun 242015
 

The following interview was aired by CNBC TV18 on 11 June 2015. At that time, the Nifty index of India was trading well below the 8000 level. Watch it and see the power of Elliott Wave analysis.
Today, the index tested a high of 8421. Will it go down to 7700? That depends on a fresh analysis of the index, but anyone who sold at 8420 levels would have already made enough money intraday to celebrate as the index plunged to 8339 in under two hours.

(The interview’s link appears in the prior post as well. Hence I removed the link here)

Nifty dives from 8421

Nifty dives from 8421

Jun 112015
 

Hello folks,

CNBC India reached out to discuss the outlook for Nifty, Tata Motors, ICICI and SBI. Here is the link for that:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/exit-longs-till-nifty-hits-8400-wavetimescoms-ramki_1405518.html

Trading is all about listening to the clues that the market sends us, and taking appropriate action. A few weeks ago, when I was in NYC, I had mentioned that we will likely get a bounce from 8080 or 100 points below that. We did get a recovery, but the personality of that recovery clearly indicated that it was not the real thing. The next level where I might get interested in discussed in the video you see in the link. Good luck.