Elliott Wave Analysis of S&P 500

The current rally in the S&P500 index looks powerful, and this should make people wonder about the medim term outlook for the US stock market. Readers might remember my post of 16 December 2011 where I suggested that we will probably see one strong rally in the index. What is happening now is part of that powerful rally.
The key point to note is we should not see any weakness under 1265 going forward. Any such move will violate one of the main rules of the Elliott Wave Principle, that wave 4 should not trade below the top of wave 1. Suppose the current strength carries the index to 1376, then we will actually move the trigger point higher, from 1265 to the top of Wave A. Let us see how things unfold.

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Posted in S&P500 | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

FOMC triggers spurt in Gold price

Yesterday I had posted a short term chart in Forbes suggesting a possible correction to 1625 area. However, from just below 1650 we saw a massive rally spurred by the FOMC statement. Of course, any shorts should have been stopped out at 1665 or close to that as recommended. WHere do we go now? Take a look at the following two charts.

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Posted in Gold | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Trading Gold can be made easy

Hah! So you really think trading gold can be made easy? It certainly does look so with hind sight, as the following charts reveal. But honestly, if you learn some Elliott Wave analysis, you could have captured at least some of this move. Of course, just like trading any other instrument, you would have placed protective stops while trading Gold. For example, you might have thought that Gold would find resistance at the 61.8% retracement level, but it actually went to the 70.7%. If you had sold at the 61.8% level, you should have chosen your stop carefully, just above the next key resistance at 70.7%. Alternately, you would have joined in as the metal started moving down, with a stop above the high, Trading is more than just analysis. It concerns active money management. What WaveTimes does is to show you how to use Elliott Wave principle in order to bring a method to your trading activity.

So let us start by looking at how you could have captured many of the moves down. Remember, Wave Times had mentioned the target of 1480 a few months prior to the collapse, so you know which way it was headed already.
P.S. I will try and post more charts on trading gold in Forbes today.Click here if you wish to follow my Forbes comments.



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Posted in Gold | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Bajaj Auto: Elliott Wave update

On January 10, I had suggested that Bajaj Auto appeared to be a good candidate that could go against the gathering bullishness in the overall market. The speed of the recovery in this stock is unsettling, and I have clearly become over confident about the prospect on the downside. So it is time to look for ways to salvage this position. If you see it dip to close to the recommended entry level around 1505. I would urge traders to take back their shorts and look for a new trade in some other stock.

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Posted in Indian Stocks Trading | Tagged | 10 Comments

The Practice of Elliott Wave Analysis

I have been receiving several messages from traders who seem to have fallen prey to the age old impulse of selling into a rally, when everything we know tells us to be patient to buy the dip. The fact that the dip did not materialize should not be the excuse to sell! You should always ask yourself what is the major direction that we want to be trading? If we are looking for a dip of 100 points to go long for a move of 600 points, does it make sense to sell after a recovery of 150 points?? THis is what many traders have done in the last few days with India’s Nifty. It doesn’t matter if you have no position in that market. Just see how I would deal with an error like that, and learn from it.As always, there are comments posted directly on the chart. Enjoy.(PS These are the same techniques I have taught you in the book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom”)

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Posted in India | Tagged , , , | 63 Comments

Tesco (LSE) outlook using Elliott Wave Analysis

Tesco UK In today’s Financial Times, I read an interesting article by Paul Murphy that started off like this: “About 40 teams of sell-side analysts cover Tesco, the nation’s leading grocer, slavishly updating their forecasting models with every grain of fresh shopping info. Did any of those number crunchers fully anticipate the recent “strain” on Tesco’s profitability and the subsequent warning that profit growth in the coming year will be “minimal”? Not if the share price reaction is any guide: down 16 per cent on the day of the news” Here is the link That opening statement got me thinking. If we had looked at this chart a few weeks ago, what would have been our recommendation? Well, the chart is presented for you to study. Some of the non-believers might say that this is all after the fact. But our response to them is two fold. First, take a look at the hundreds of examples in this blog that anticipated prices before the event. Second, we are saying where this stock is headed – GBP 245, and we are giving some reasons for that. When an extended fifth wave finishes, we should look for a swift sell off to the second wave level within this fifth. Pass this on to your sell-side analysts, and certainly to your friends exposed to UK stocks.Maybe they haven’t heard of “Five Waves to Financial Fortune” yet! Enjoy!

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Posted in UK Stocks | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Bajaj Auto – Elliott Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis is a dynamic tool. We should not use it as a simple forecasting tool, rather as something which will guide our trading decisions. We should look at our charts, and make up our mind as to what is the most likely scenario. Then we sit and wait. If things don’t unfold as planned, we wait for more clues and take new decisions. EWP helps us at every stage. Take my comments on the NIFTY index yesterday. I pointed out a potential triangle formation. Just so that newbies don’t miss it, I added in clear words on the relevant chart that the formation could simply vanish tomorrow. We should never be surprised or disappointed if something like this happens. That is the very nature of the market, to take an unexpected turn! However, like a well trained dog, it usually comes back on track after the detour! In the meantime, we should not panic. Our goal is clear. To make money by taking low risks. While we wait for such a set up on the buy side, there are some interesting “Sell” candidates. I mentioned Larsen and Tubro a few days back. Today present you with Bajaj Auto. Bear in mind that these are short term plays.As always, you need to protect yourself with suitable stops. For example, Bajaj Auto could go as high as 1535, so you should also know where a good stop should be, and how you should build a short position. Trading is not the same as analysing charts. The winner is one who knows the art of money management. Even if you are not a master of ELliott Wave Analysis (to tell you the truth, no one is!), it doesn’t matter. Become a master of money management first. Simultaneously learn EWP. Good luck.

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Posted in Indian Stocks Trading | Tagged , , , | 13 Comments

India’s Nifty Outlook: Elliott Wave Analysis of NSEI

India's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia’s Nifty stock index has been moving sideways for a few days. Having staged a decent recovery from the 4535 level that WaveTimes had identified as a key level some time back, many readers are anxious to know if we have seen the bottom. As WaveTimes has a truly global following, I had to look at other asset classes before coming back to Nifty. The attached charts explains in detail my current thinking. Read, Enjoy and Share! By passing these comments to your friends, you are not only helping them, but also giving back to the trading community in your own way.

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Posted in India | Tagged , , , , , | 50 Comments