In my Elliott Waves update on the Australian Dollar posted in MarketWatch on 6 Febuary 2012, I had discussed my medium-term outlook for the AUD/USD. You might want to read that first.
The decline from the high of 1.0856 seen on 29 Feb is looking impulsive,but there is just a small chance that we could find some support around 1.0450/70 levels. Between 1.0450 and 1.0380 I would recommend that you don’t get involved. If you see a direct recovery towards 1.0620 you might consider a small short for a dip down to the 1.0480 levels. Only after we break down below 1.0380, the key level mentioned in my post on Wall Street Journals’ Market Watch should we start looking for where to sell aggressively for the medium term target below 0.8800.
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Hello Ramki
Finally, I have read your book. I had a problem with downloading it on my PC.
In my opinion a very useful book because it contains practical techniques of the trade. Unlike other books on the EWP, which describe the rules of marking charts. I’m recommending it to all my friends who use the EWP in their trading.
I also have a question about your last forecast for AUDUSD pair. Do I understand what you would expect a flat correction to 1.0450. Then restore the last peak above 1.0860. And only then we will see a sharp downtrend.
Alexander
Hi Alexander, Thanks for your comments about the book. The potential dip to 1.0470 may well have already finished at 1.0505 (with complex corrections we never know until later). If it goes above 1.0700 now, it would have reached a reflex point as exlained in the book. Unless it comes below 1.0580 directly, I wouldnt like to be short for now, rather would prefer to stay on sidelines. The comment on MarketWatch is more relevant for you. Best of luck.
sir when we see ur posts about gold and curde oil?
Hi, thank you for this very helpful blog.
I have a question about AUD. I read your Market Watch article, not yet your book.
D
The question is about complex corrections.
In Market watch you say that the leg down to 0.93xx at the end of 2011 could just be wave A. This means we’re now in wave B, then possibly a wave C to 0.88.
Wave B has been so far a 4 waves leg. Is there an expectation of how wave B should be?
Even the correction we’ve seen this week doen to 1.505 has been a 3/4 waves so far. Why not a 5 waves?
Probably I have to read the book!
Hi Luca, welcome to the club. B waves should be 3 wave formations. Inside the B wave there is minor abc. The minor c is made up of 5 waves. Hope that clarifies. The book will give details after which u could refer to the hundreds of charts in this blog as more examples
I got the book, and I’m studying it.
Very helpful and clear. Thank you very much.
I see your point in why this should be, the end of wave B/beginning of wave C of a bigger correction that will drive down to 0.88.
Some “others” are interpreting, as you say in your article, this move up as wave 3 of 5 and not as a complex correction. So in this case we would now be in wave 4 of 5.
Does this last 3 weeks price movement look like an irregular correction wave 4 (from the top of the extended wave 3)? Just looking into the 5 wave stand point.
So from the top of 3, we had wave A in 3 waves, then B that went beyond the top of wave 3 by a few pips, and now wave C that will be a 5 waves move, possibly to a 38.2 retracement of wave 3 around 1.04769.
Only thing is the B that extended a few pips beyond the previous high of 3 on the 29th of February is made of 5 waves. B should be 3…
I’m studying. Thank you for your help.
Hi Luca, you are doing the right things by figuring out a count following the guidelines in the book. Now you should watch to see how it unfolds. Wheher it works out or not, you would have learned from the experience. Over time, you will get better, much better. Good luck.
Superb analysis of aud.
Hi,
I like you Elliott wave count about aud/usd
im agree with you
Thank you
Andres
sry the disturbance Dott Ramki,
believe that if the cross aud usd falls in the way that you described the cross eur usd will fall ……….to??
Dott Luca, It is human nature to hope for a move that will suit us. I havent looked at these currencies in a few days. But what you say seems to make sense.
Since Minor C has abc count. Currently we are in b and b have 5 waves. What I see now is that AUD/USD has completed 2nd wave in Minor b and best entry at begining of wave 3 at 1.04800 (end of wave 2) since Wave 3 has commenced has completed 1st sub wave at 1.04850. If it is corret next stop 1.0950~1.1 in 7 days. I hope I got it right.
HI Ajoy, please post your own counts on the forum for others to comment. Thanks
Hello Ramki,
Thank you for the post about the Russian index MICEX.
I am closely watching the currency pair AUDUSD. I do not think that the downward movement is impulse. It seems to me one more leg down and we’ll see upward movement. Do you have changed your opinion on the marking of the pair?