Nov 062015

This post contains Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver, using the continuous futures charts of Silver traded in the Multi Commodity Exchange of India.

I prepared these Elliott Wave charts for a client back in September 2015. This is not the entire pack, but most of it is here. Use these charts to learn! Don’t use them to trade the market at the current levels. Remember, Elliott Waves are only an aid to your trading. It is a very dynamic thing. If you like what you see here, tell your friends. Unlike which is a paid service, this blog is entirely free. It exists solely to teach you some of my techniques. So go ahead and enjoy.I suggest that you right click on each image and open them in a different tabs.That way, you can go back and forth easily.

mcx silver-18Sep15a

mcx silver-18Sep15b

mcx silver-18Sep15c

mcx silver-18Sep15d

mcx silver-18Sep15e

mcx silver-18Sep15f

mcx silver-18Sep15g

mcx silver-18Sep15h

May 042011

The recent sharp swings in Silver has caused consternation among traders and investors alike. What is the outlook for this metal?

In the last Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver, posted on 24th April, we saw a case made out for a test of the $50 level. It reached 49.51 and boy! whatever happened there is a trader’s nigtmare, especially if he was caught long! In just 4 days Silver has lost over 18%. Could this have been anticipated? What can we do from here? Where is Silver going in the medium term? These questions are uppermost in the minds of traders. Let us address them one by one.

If you were using Elliott Wave Analysis, then you would have had anticipated a top near the $50 level without too much trouble. (We had actually done that in this blog). However, I did not warn you that the top was already in for the short term because I am not watching Silver on a daily basis. Look at the first two charts shown here. When the extended fifth wave covered a distance equal to the distance travelled by waves 1-3, any serious trader would think of taking profits. What is more important is the fact that any correction that follows the completion of an extended fifth wave is expected to be BOTH sharp and deep. This phenomenon has been covered extensively in this blog (see Fifth wave extensions can make you RICH!).

What can Silver traders do from here? First of all, be prepared for a move down to the $34 level. That level is the 2nd wave of the extended fifth. Will we get there directly? This is not so easy to answer, but there are supports at 40.10 and 39.70. There is a reasonably good chance for a bounce from either of these levels, but lookout for selling to emerge again around 44.60. Only above 45.60 will I breathe easy if I was caught long above 49! Yes, it is that serious, buddy.There is always some hope that we will get the so-called 2nd retracement of the extended fifth wave, a move that can take us back to the top of the move before a collapse happens. But we cannot rest on hope. We need to manage any open positions with care. So keep an eye on the resistances mentioned above.

What is the medium term outlook for Silver? As I said before, I am currently working on the paradigm that we have just finished the 3rd wave, and the anticipated dip to $34 area will be the fourth wave. Once that correction is finished, we should look for a fresh move higher. That rally might run out of steam near the $50 again if there are not enough reasons for the commodity run to carry on. This blog will surely update you on how to trade that rally when it starts. For the time being, though, let us concentrate of navigating the downmove to $34 without getting killed.

Finally, I recently read an interesting article on Silver by John Navin, and thought you might find some of his writings in Forbes interesting. Enjoy. Ramki.

Apr 212011

In the Elliott Wave Analysis of Comex Silver posted on 23 Nov 2010, I had warned readers that once the complex fourth wave (within the 3rd wave) was done, we will see the continuation of the move strongly to the upside (because we will still be in the 3rd wave mode). This is precisely what happened. (The May contract dipped to 2640 before climbing higher).

I am hearing incessant calls for an update on Silver, and frankly we can sum it up in three small words “Don’t be short”. If we get any dip towards 42 in the cash market, there will be hoardes of buyers.

Mar 102011

On 14th December 2010, Wavetimes had suggested that Soybean Oil Futures could travel as high as 59.68, and I had posted a sell recommendation around that target. The actual high was seen on 10th Feb 2011, and it would have been possible to pin point the completion of the 5th wave of the Wave V if one were trading this actively (see black colored numbers). From the price action, it looks like wave C of the correction has commenced, and any move below 55.20 would all-but-confirm continuation down to 48.30. Now short-term traders of Soybean oil futures need to know how to handle the risks, but the aim of this post is to show you the direction. To help you trade it requires a deeper commitment that I cannot make at this point. So good luck, folks. Ramki

Nov 232010

A reader requested for an analysis of Comex Silver, and I decided to take some time off to look that up. The chart is quite interesting. Maybe I should start writing more on commodities! Anyway, here goes. We should take a look above 3000 and then come down in a complex fourth wave. That part of the correction will prove very difficult for many traders, and I would help if I had the time! Unfortunately, I am still very busy in my present full time job…
So use the road map in the attached chart and stay lucky! Regards