All Entries in the "Commodities" Category
Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold 29 Aug 2010
When I presented my wave analysis of Gold on 25th July, we were looking for a rally from around 1157 because a 5-wave decline seemed over. I also warned to wait for the selling to start before joining in. During the month that has passed, Gold has rallied as expected, but the rally is taking [...]
Gold :Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis 25 July 2010
Elliott Wave analysis of Gold as discussed here on 23 December 2009 had warned us to look for one final upmove once the complex correction from the prior peak at 1226 was completed. We got the move that reached 1265 on 21st June 2010. I would now like to suggest that Gold has probably completed [...]
Crude Oil – Elliott Wave Analysis 14 July 2010
When dealing with financial markets, you should always be ready to change your mind about the framework on which you are basing your analysis. If everything was laid out cut and dried, there won’t be a market because everyone would know what is going to happen. Take the case of crude oil. In my Elliott [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil 6 July 2010
I will be addressing the Reuters Global Oil Forum this morning at 8.45 London time, and presenting my Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude oil. As many of you won’t have access to that platform, I am posting the charts here. These were prepared late yesterday evening (when oil was trading at 72.36). My baseline case remains [...]
ELliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil 24 May 2010
In just a matter of 9 days Crude Oil has moved over 15%. Now tell me if there is any finance manager who wishes to hedge his exposures would not be happy to have such intelligence! Elliott Wave Analysis is powerful if you know how to use it. A recovery to $73 is likley, and a [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of Light Crude Oil
Here is a chart of Light Crude oil that I prepared yesterday for a Reuters presentation. As you can see from the elliott wave analysis and labels marked on the chart, I expect a slight recovery from the mid 75s , but eventually we should be prepared for a move lower to $65 or even [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold : 2 February 2010
A correction can sometimes be 100% of the prior move, and this is what we seem to have got in Gold. Take a look at this chart where the Elliott Wave count labels are clearly marked. Gold has retraced 100% of its prior rally and has embarked on a strong rally that we have been patiently [...]
Wave analysis of Gold. Update 15 Jan 2010
Hello again. I am inclined to say that the post of 31 Dec was based on incomplete data for the short term because of the gaps. I had assumed (presumably incorrec tly) that we had an overlap. Perhaps the 4th wave was lost in the gap, and we really had a full 5-wave pattern there? [...]
Gold again! Update of 24 December 2009
Now that Gold has staged a smart recovery from the lows, [ and is likely to close the week above 1100 ], I thought it will be instructive to post how one should have traded this final fifth wave. As always, you will find the comments written on the chart itself. Briefly, one could have [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold 23 December 2009
Many investors and traders must be wondering about the immediate direction for Gold now that we seem to have come well below the 1100 level. My previous comment had said we need a weekly close below 1100 to cast doubts on the call for a fresh surge in the price of Gold. Today, I spent [...]
Medium Term Outlook for Gold
Here is my medium term outlook for Gold. After having overshot the minimum target of 1161 handsomely and reached a high of 1226, gold has experienced a bout of profit taking. In the medium term, the outlook for gold calls for a final push higher before a serious correction can set in. That upward drive [...]
Gold reaches record highs and first objective
Almost a month back, I wrote in these pages that Gold will stay bid until it reaches at least 1069, and if sentiment remains strong, we could even see 1161. At that time, the precious metal was trading at 1016. Today, Gold has reached a record high and met that first target at 1069, and [...]
Gold shines
Every now and then I run into these situations when I have to revise my analysis of several instruments at the same time. The simple fact is NO ONE can forecast the markets. What one can do is to determine with a reasonable degree of confidence about the likelihoodof a certain pattern developing in the [...]
Gold posts head and shoulders top: 14 June 2009
Gold has closed below the neckline of what looks like a nice head and shoulders top. The neckline itself lies at 944, and will become a major resistance if the metal continues to slide towards its first target around 900. Readers will remember that I have been calling for a significant downmove in Gold, most [...]
Is Gold ready to collapse? 7 June 2009
Has Gold completed its 2nd retracement that often follows a fifth wave extension? This is an important question because if Gold has indeed finished its upmove, what should follow is a significant down move that could reach 650, or potentially even lower towards 560. On the surface, such a proposition seems laughable. But be warned [...]