A new article has been posted on Forbes.com and will be yet another learning experience for readers of this blog.
Readers of the Elliott Wave Analyses on this blog would remember that on 8th February it was suggested that investors in Freeport-McMoran Inc. might consider buying on a dip between 50% and 61.8% of the rally from the $3.52 low. That low came on 11 Feb at $4.65 (over 18% below the $5.72 when we had discussed this stock). Wonder of wonders, the market decided that the correction below the 50% level was adequate for wave 2, and we saw a magnificent wave 3 unfold.
As you all know, Elliott Wave Principle says that the third wave is the most power of the three impulses. And the upward cycle will be made up of 5 waves. Those who took the risk and the signal have seen their money double is just about a month. Now isn’t that a great example of Elliott Waves at work!
Here is the Elliott Wave chart of Freeport-McMoran Inc (FCX) as it appears today.
Truth be told, I first heard of this index some 15 minutes ago when I received an email from good old Bob.D. So I googled it and read the entry in Wikipedia.
“The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change.
The daily price change of the Value Line Geometric Composite Index is found by multiplying the ratio of each stock’s closing price to its previous closing price, and raising that result to the reciprocal of the total number of stock”
Can’t say it made me any wiser 🙂
But a look at the charts was quite revealing, and I am happy to share them with you.
I suggest that you open each chart in a new tab so it will be easy to go back and forth. Like always, my comments appear on the charts themselves and so I won’t add any more fluff. Enjoy and share with friends.
This first chart is a monthly chart going back almost to the time I was born. Pay attention to the time frame and the color coding that will help you spot where we are in the progression.
The global stock market is so vast that the more eyes there are to spot the approaching end of a five-wave pattern, the better off we are! I should thank Bob D for drawing my attention to Freeport-McMoran Inc (FCX) -NYSE. The following discussion covers the Elliott Wave analysis of this stock. You will see how the various twists and turns in FCX were all following the dictates of the Elliott Wave Principle.
When we commence the analysis of any instrument, it is always better to start with the bigger picture. So we commence our study with the weekly chart of FReeport-McMorRan Inc.You got to remember that the goal of any analysis is to provide you with a framework to base your investment or trade. Such a framework will give you an orderly way to approach the market. It doesn’t guarantee you profits, but you will know quite early whether you are on the right track or not, and that knowledge alone is well worth the time you invest in this process. So lets get started with our first Elliott Wave chart. I suggest that you keep opening each chart in a new tab to save you time.
On 20 January 2016, FCX made a low of $3.52. We see from the chart below that a complex correction has developed from the high near $61, probably unfolding as a double zigzag. The end of the second zigzag was projected to land at a 138.2% projection just a shade above the $4 mark. Perhaps the 3.52 low marked the end of this major correction?
Now let us quickly go down to the more recent moves. Notice the green arrow in the chart above? I suggest we start our next wave count from there, as it looks like a pivot point.Two things stand out clearly. We can make out a set of five waves from near the $24, and to our delight, there is a further set of 5 minor waves inside the fifth wave that is quite clear.
In order to give us more comfort that about this fifth wave, we will delve deeper to see if the waves hold some Fibonacci ratio relationship to each other. The chart below shows that sub wave ii corrected the sub wave i by 50%
Next we see that the sub wave iii was extended. An extension is when an impulse wave travels more than 161.8% (Note: this is my own interpretation of when to label a wave as extended). In this case, sub wave iii went as far as 223.6% of wave i.
You might remember from your reading of my book ‘Five Waves to Financial Freedom” that when a third wave is extended, it is normal for the fourth wave to be short and typically correct to just 23.6% of the just completed third wave. You can see from the Elliott wave chart of Freeport-McMoRan Inc below that sub wave iv went exactly to the 23.6% retracement target. This sort of reinforces the feeling that we are on the right track!
And finally, we see that the fifth wave was exactly 50% of the distance from the point ‘0’ or the starting point of subwave i to the terminal point of subwave iii. This is again quite text-book-like, and is something to be looked at in wonderment!
I leave you with two more charts for careful consideration. My Elliott Wave comments are on the charts themselves. Remember, this blog aims to teach you some of my methods. I am not making a recommendation here. But if you are patient, and if you can identify 5 waves up from the bottom, then buying into a 50% to 61.8% pull back is a most logical thing to do, especially if you are a believer that Elliot Wave Principle works! In case you are not convinced, simply look at the hundreds of other examples in this blog! All the best.
In this post you will learn how to trade Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) using Elliott Wave analysis. I had sent these charts to members of the exclusive club on November 24, 2015 when the stock was around $559.The main idea was there was a good chance for a move lower after recovering to around $585. The stock reached $585.80 the following day. It moved slightly above 585 on December 1 and 2, but on both days it closed below $585. And then we got a 12% move down to $515 on 7 Dec.
This blog aims to share some of my techniques with you, so you too could refine and improve your trading style. Used in conjunction with my book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” the numerous charts that are presented in WaveTimes will open your eyes to what is possible using Elliott Waves. Enjoy and share with your friends.
As many of you know, I also have a professional website which caters to the needs of high net-worth individuals and experienced traders. This website is at www.wavetimes.net. I have today posted an example of a consulting assignment in that website, and thought that you will appreciate a link to that post.
I will try and post a few more examples in the coming weeks for your learning. This blog is a living book, an extension of Five Waves to Financial Freedom [ or vice versa 🙂 ]. Enjoy!
I will post you a couple of charts that I prepared for my old friend Bob D (remember the person who gave me so much of his valuable time in proof reading your favorite book, Five Waves to Financial Freedom?)
With Elliott Waves, you should never struggle to count the waves. When it becomes hard, just step back and look at the bigger picture. The best trades are done when you are able to see the waves easily and clearly, while the rest of the world is stressing out about the next few points. You, on the other hand, having read and understood my way of approaching the market, would place your bids or offers near the anticipated targets and wait for the fruit to land on your lap! Of course, occasionally you will get a lemon, but often enough it will be a sweet fruit.
Here are the Elliott Wave charts of WalMart. The second chart shows the third wave in detail. As I point out, you really don’t need to go very deep! Just keep it simple. All the best.
Elliott Wave analysis works in all freely traded markets. The last time I offered you my Elliott Wave analysis of Egypt’s equity index, EGX30, it was back in August 2012. You can access that blog post by looking at the menu at the top of WaveTimes, under ‘Equities, Index, Africa, Egypt’.
You will see how we identified that the Egyptian index was likely to make significant gains. At that time, the index was trading at 5049. A lot of water has since flown down the Nile, but the Egyptian stock market almost doubled. I am sure a lot of investors made handsome profits in individual stocks.
However, the inevitable Elliott Wave correction set in once the five wave cycle was completed. If you had read my book Elliott Wave book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom’ you will be able to spot how so many of the observations there has played out in the Egyptian Stock Index or EGX30 index.
In the following Elliott Wave charts, I demonstrate some of the salient points. Remember that this blog exists as a resource for the student of Elliott Waves. Whether you are a professional trader, a casual investor or a serious student of Elliott Waves, the examples available here will fascinate you and help you better understand the nature of financial markets and how you could anticipate the market turns. So without any further ado, present you the charts of the Egyptian Stock market index and how Elliott Wave analysis was so powerful in its play.
Now that you have seen how Elliott Waves work, go back to FWTFF and try and see if you could figure out the likely ending point of the on going correction. Good luck.
I have been seeing several queries on the blog asking if the move to 7700 (as discussed on CNBC) is still coming, now that we have rallied up in 5 waves. So let’s try and clear up the air a bit.
The real goal of any analysis is to make money. Some people, however, want to keep proving to themselves that Elliott Waves work ( or doesn’t work). Their goal is to keep producing accurate wave counts and are happy if they get it right. Some are delighted if they can spot an occasion where someone else has got it really wrong 🙂
Remember an important point folks. NO ONE CAN TELL THE FUTURE. What we are trying to do here, with Elliott Waves, is to provide ourselves with a framework to base our trades upon. Knowing we are going to recover from around the time I gave the interview is sufficient value to make money in itself. Knowing that 8420 was a key level is additional money in the bag. (I don’t read others’ analysis, but you probably know how many others anticipated 8420 as a key level).
So what about the expectation for 7700? Is that coming? The answer is something like the following. Elliott Wave analysis is about the only approach that allows you to adjust your market expectation as you get new clues. It is a dynamic approach. You cannot draw a few lines and expect the market to follow your command. Instead, you listen to it and make changes to what you should do next.
Members of my Exclusive Club did not receive any trade ideas on the Nifty during this period. Why is that? We should know which battles to take part and which one to side step. But we did make over 13% during the rally to 8420 in one stock. Actually it moved 20%, but as conservative traders, we were content with taking 13%.
Don’t forget that I also discussed Tata Motors in that interview!
The following interview was aired by CNBC TV18 on 11 June 2015. At that time, the Nifty index of India was trading well below the 8000 level. Watch it and see the power of Elliott Wave analysis.
Today, the index tested a high of 8421. Will it go down to 7700? That depends on a fresh analysis of the index, but anyone who sold at 8420 levels would have already made enough money intraday to celebrate as the index plunged to 8339 in under two hours.
(The interview’s link appears in the prior post as well. Hence I removed the link here)