Trading NIFTY using Elliott Waves by Ramki of Wavetimes.com
In my last Elliott wave update on the Nifty Index (posted on 3 July 2013), I had presented you with a big picture scenario. The third chart in that post had one level as 5112 being 61.8% of wave A. It is gratifying to note that on 28 August, the index reached within 6 points of that level (5119) before it commenced another move higher. To those who don’t understand markets, 5119 will appear far away from the 4300 level which was written in my notes at the bottom of that chart. These people will have serious difficulty in making any money if they pursue technical trading. There are a couple of things that one needs to understand about Elliott waves. A big picture outlook is just that. It gives us a broad road map. Timing an entry to capture the next large move will demand paying careful attention to waves in the shorter cycles. In today’s post, I am presenting you with an example. This is a 10-minute chart! You can see that I have put some tentative Elliott wave labels on it. These are still work-in-progress, and are by no means conclusive.
In my book “Five Waves To Financial Freedom” I have explained in detail what happens when a five-wave move is completed. The main challenge lies in determining whether the move is actually finished. There are many ways of counting a move, and what you see here is one example. A short-term trader could have benefited by counting it like above, and by selling at 6220 with a very tight stop. I have often stated that trading the markets requires a little more than an ability to count waves. This is where many of us suffer from weakness. We choose to believe that what we are able to ‘see’ is how the markets will behave. If there is one important lesson you need to master before you expose real money it is the willingness to accept you could be wrong, and knowing beforehand what you will do when you are proved wrong. You need to evaluate various scenarios, and determine which gives you the best risk-reward trade off. Then, you need to be patient for the markets to come to your desired level. And if it does come there, you need the courage to actually pull the trigger!! And finally, you need to be diligent to monitor the position to take corrective action if the market sends out fresh clues that are counter to your thinking. It is precisely because of these challenges that you need to be wary of trade ideas that come at you thick and fast from various sources, including TV channels. It is so easy to say ‘buy here with a stop there’ and not bother with that recommendation beyond that date. After all, there are new recommendations for you to look at the next day!! Anyway, I wish you good luck with your trading. This blog aims to teach you the methods, and nothing more.
Ramki of WaveTimes.com