On 8th March I had privately circulated an Elliott Wave update on Kuwait index. This is produced here just to demonstrate how one has to change his tune when the market shows it has a different mindset. Today, 6th May, the index has straddled an important prior top which I had labeled as wave 1. As you know, wave 4 can never overlap the top of wave 1. If it does, then we have to adjust our counts immediately. I have done this in the second chart. There is no change in the view that we will see a significant rally once the 2nd wave is completed. The purpose of today’s update is to alert you that the 2nd wave is still not over and it is likely to develop some more complexity. This could produce a short term recovery, but be prepared to wait for some more time for the mega bull run to materialize.
Here are the charts of Dubai Financial Market Index as well as Kuwait Stock Market Index. I prepared the analysis of Dubai Markets before the news as you can see from the date on top. Both charts are posted here just to illustrate the usefulness of elliott wave analysis of stock markets even if one is considering an emerging market such as Kuwait. Enjoy!
Even if you are from the West, and have no interest in a company that is called Global Investment House, Kuwait, you would learn something by looking at the way the waves have been labelled. Likewise with the Sensex, which is the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index. Enjoy! Proceed for Elliot Wave Analysis and Trading Ideas
The Kuwait Stock Index is approaching some short term objectives between 10500 and 10760. Expect a recovery to around 11500 as a first step, and later on to 12200. It is likely that this move will not be a simple and straight move as there are many badly bruised traders out there. Even after we reach 12200, there will be nervous selling that could take the index down again, but should that attempt fail to break to new lows, then we will begin to think of the possibility of a more sustained recovery.
While the stock markets in the rest of the GCC have surged in tandem with the rest of the world, one might wonder why the moves in Kuwait are so hesitant. One reason could be that Kuwait did not witness a carnage like the rest of the world did. Its declines were more orderly. I have posted a bunch of charts and a brief note on some other Kuwaiti stocks. Share it with your friends and let me know if you have any questions. Best!
kuwait-stocks-14-oct-08; (there are 4 Kuwaiti stocks covered in this file)
kwse-14-oct-2008; (this is the index)
quick-update-14-oct-2008 (a brief look at several other Kuwaiti stocks)