From an Elliott Wave point of view, the recovery in the Gernam Dax index from its June 5, 2012 low of 5914 does not look like a third wave. In addition, the prior recovery from the September 2011 low of 4965 to 7194 looks like a three wave movement, followed by an overlap. Thus, while we should acknowledge the possibility of the index making one more significant recovery before a more serious decline in the big picture, the near term also warns of an impending completion of a minor diagonal. This is not to say you should run out today and short the DAX. Just be aware that as we witness a slow down in momentum in the ‘e’ wave of the diagonal, we should get ready for a correction. The attached chart of the German Dax shows my Elliott Wave counts in detail.
Back in Dec 2011, I posted my Dax index outlook using Elliott Wave analysis, more with an intention to teach how we could apply the Elliott wave Principle than to forecast. I proposed a bearish count, but the index recovered more than anticpated. Now is a good time to review the movements from the low posted in September 2011.
I am continuing to label the first rally up as wave A for now. Remember that all Elliott Wave labels are work in progress. We will make changes as the market unfolds. The idea is to give ourselves an edge, a system, that will tell us we are wrong much sooner than otherwise. Observe from the chart that we have likely finished a 5 wave rally from the (potential) wave B bottom. If this 5 wave rally is a C wave (and not a 3rd wave) we will eventually get an overlap on the top of wave A to confirm a bearish count. However, I tend to be careful at these levels.
There are two supports that we need to keep an eye on from here. These are 6802 and 6510. Unless we get some really bad news, we should expect 6510 to hold first try and get a move up again. We shall then come back to the question of whether a deep sell off is the correct prognosis for the German Dax.
As part of your Elliott Wave education, WaveTimes brings you the analysis of the AEX Index, which is a free-floated adjusted market capitalization weighted index of the leading Dutch (Netherland) stocks on the Amsterdam Exchange.
As always, there are notes directly on the chart itself. Elliott Wave analysis is always a work in progress. You should not ever think that once you do your wave counts, you can forget about it and the markets have to obey your diktat! Quite the opposite, really! The market is the master, and we make adjustments along the way. However, the real value of Elliott Waves come into play when you know before hand that there is a chance to reach 356, and that if the index starts coming off from there, we should be watchful near the top of wave (a) because a move below that top will violate one of the rules of Elliott Wave Principle. If that happens, we will cease to buy dips because we will then be back in a bear mode…and so on and so forth.
Of course, Elliott Waves will appear daunting to the uninitiated, but I hope the book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” has helped make it easy for you to learn enough of Elliott Waves so that you can start applying what you have learned quite quickly. Good luck, ye punters.
Every now and then I get a request to do Elliott Wave Analysis of a new instrument, and this time it is the turn of the IMKB-100, or the benchmark equity index of the Istanbul stock exchange in Turkey.
As regular readers of this blog know, I beleive that you could apply Elliott Waves to any well traded instrument and frequently the result is an eye-opener. I am sure there are thousands of traders in Turkey who are unaware of how they could benefit if they applied even some basic concepts that is explained in WaveTimes. So this post is dedicated to them. Please share.
There are two charts that are presented here. The first one is a long-term week chart. You can see how we got a nice five wave rally from the mid 1990s. The third wave was 200% of the first wave. Then we got a 38.2% correction as wave 4, followed by a fifth wave that was itself capable of being broken down into 5 minor waves. The ending point of the fifth wave was predictable using the method I explained in the book ‘Five Waves to Financial Freedom’. If one had gotten out near there, he/she could have escaped a loss of 61.8% in the value of the broad market!
The next chart gives you the details of the new up move that began after the major correction. This is a daily chart, and once again you can see how one could have used Elliott Wave Analysis to benefit.
I have also drawn a tentative path the five waves of the current C wave should travel. Once that move is over, expect a relatively large downmove again to complete a correction of the huge rally we saw from near 20,000 to above 70,000.