All Entries in the "Forex" Category
Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD 19Aug2010
Elliott wave analysis requires the trader to have an open mind about what could happen. The wave principle is capable of giving you a road map. You follow the signs until you run into an obstacle, at which time you will be presented with another map. Unfortunately, most traders start with good intentions, but decide [...]
Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD
Long time followers of my Elliott Wave analysis know that I propose an idea, and then follow it faithfully until proved wrong. The value of this approach is it allows us to take low-risk positions, while always remembering that we could be wrong. It has been my view that the long-term target for the EUR/USD lies [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD 8Aug2010
Are we going to see a test of 1.6170 directly? and If we do get there, will we get a 10-big figure decline from there? These are some of the questions that the Wavetimes watcher must be having. Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD suggests that so long we we stay above 1.5915 now, there is [...]
Medium Term update on GBPUSD
I have no problem discarding a wave count that has served us so well since March of 2009. Likewise, the count I am presenting here will also have a life-span. Once its time comes, we will have to let it go too. The most important consideration is whether the waves are consistent with the underlying [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD 1 Aug 2010
In my recent Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD, I had suggested that 1.5655 is an important level, and if we fail there and come below 1.5530, perhaps we can kiss the Sterling Bulls a fond goodbye. But the love story is far from over, it looks. Goldman Sachs has put out a note (published in [...]
Sterling Pound Elliott Wave Analysis 29 July 2010
The market is a great teacher. One has to take victories with the humility that next time one could be terribly wrong. Have we nailed the Sterling correctly yet again? Perhaps. But we will never know until the rest of the market is convinced. Right now the top has held quite nicely. But remember that [...]
GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis 28 July 2010
The Medium Term Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD posted here on 11th May (when Sterling was trading at 1.4836) suggested that we will first dip to 1.4226 and then rally to around 1.5500. The actual low was 1.4230 and today we are trading at 1.5590 levels. A couple of days I had prepared the chart [...]
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis 18 July 2010
My last Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/USD was posted on 24th May. When dealing with the bigger picture, I find it generally useful to leave the markets to sort out the minor squiggles by itself. For the corporate treasurer and hedge fund manager as well as other medium term players, the bigger direction is more [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD (Australian Dollar)
The Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD published on 24th May in wavetimes suggested that any recovery to 0.8550 levels will find fresh sellers. The downside objective was below 0.7800. To our delight, the currency ran into a brick wall on 28 May exactly at 0.8551 and is already down by over 2%. If you managed [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY Sterling Yen
The Sterling Yen cross, or GBP/JPY has been a bit difficult to trade for most people in recent weeks. Clearly the easy-money days are gone. Yet, one can hardly recommend a buy here. The sentiment is overwhelmingly negative and we don’t know how much exposure UK banks have to the smaller Spanish Banks. Using Elliott [...]
Elliott Wave update EUR/USD Euro
Wave analysis is as much a work of art as science! It is constantly a work in progress. Yet we can get some very useful clues by spending some time with the charts. Take the Euro for example. We are at sort of cross roads. Are we going to rally all the way to 1.3600, [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD Australian Dollar 24 May 2010
There are two interesting developments in a chart that makes me sit up and take notice. One is an extending fifth wave, The other is a failed fifth wave. The Australian Dollar or AUD/USD had posted a failed fifth wave last week and I had warned you to look for a sell off. Sure enough [...]
Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD Australian Dollar
AUD has had a failed fifth wave
“Nothing shameful about weak Euro” – FT
The Financial Times editorial of Monday 17th May is emphatic: a weak Euro will boost the eurozone’s export competitiveness, and hence should be welcomed. If this wisdom becomes accepted widely, then there need be no fear of intervention, and the markets could sell on every corrective bounce until the technical targets below 1.1700 are reached.
A non-technical update on EUR/USD
I am going to quote some comments by Paul Krugman: 1. “I’m not encouraged by the remarks of some of the leaders, who keep talking about protecting the euro as if speculation against the currency were the problem. Actually, a weak euro helps Europe.” 2. “When countries have their own currencies, they can deal with [...]