May 012013

The Pound has been steadily gaining ground and is poised to reach the 61.8% retracement of its last swing lower. This comes at 1.5664, and is worth looking at closely. Besides, if we consider that the recovery is a double zigzag, the second wave ‘c’ has a 123.6% measure of wave ‘a’ at 1.5666. If we look at the internal waves of wave ‘c’ we see that the 5th minor wave will have its 61.8% measure of the distance from 0 to 3 at 1.5680. We also see that an Elliott wave channel top comes around that level. Considering all this, one might consider a SMALL short position at 1.5663 with a stop at 1.5683. If stopped, one should wait for 1.5778 and sell a bit more aggressively there with a stop at 1.5798. These are really counter-trend trades and I present them here so you could learn how I think about waves. It is not a recommendation!

Mar 152013

Hello Folks,

As promised, I am producing some of the GBPUSD updates posted on the Premium Website. This first one below was dated 25 Feb 2013. The low for GBP on 1st March was 1.4984 and it reached a high of 1.5199 by 5th March. (Of course, we didn’t catch the full move to the top because I continued to remain bearish, and as this was a counter-trend move, the position was closed out sooner)


25 Feb 2013 UPDATE (On the Premium Website)

After a nice long walk, I came back and looked at the charts again, and have changed my mind about where a low-risk counter-trend trade is in your best interest. Take a look at the attached two charts and modify your tactics accordingly. The GBPUSD is still around 1.5140 as I am posting this. Good luck.










On 1st March I posted this update, urging people NOT to sell at 1.5050 if it got there AFTER a dip to around 1.4980. This saved them for selling too soon, as price recovered to 1.5199 as mentioned above.


1 March (another update)

While we should look to the daily and hourly charts to figure out our trades, it doesnt hurt to keep an eye on the very short term charts as the price approaches our levels. As I mentioned earlier there are supports between 1.4964 and 1.4980. That could produce a small round of short covering before the weekend. If you see a move towards 1.5050/55 , you may try a small short because I think we will likely stay under 1,5085 and test our supports. But don’t try shorts on any bounce AFTER it trades to 1.4980. We need to look at the charts again at that time. Remember, the short term trades aren’t for everyone! Most of you have come to WaveTimes with an intention of catching a large move (which means at least a 100 pips, or thereabouts)


On 5th March, I told traders to sell around 1.5250 because I felt the Pound was going down to 1.4880. However, it failed to go above 1.5199, and we missed  that sell there. The confirmation that a top was in place came when the Pound came directly below 1.5040.


On 7th March I posted this. And incredibly, the Pound dipped to a low of 1.4966, recovered to 1.5012, came down to 1.4970 again, and rallied to 1.5080. On 8th March it touched a low of 1.4885 and recovered to 1.4958. See the comments below. All of this was for a one-time payment of $50.


7 March:

As we dipped directly below 1.5040 yesterday (a level that has now become a solid resistance, and today’s high itself being only 1.5030) I am closing this thread. But as a parting gift to you. here is how I think it is likely to play out from here.

We are currently at 1.5000
I think we will first get a dip to 1.4960, then recover to 1.5015
From 1.5015 we will get another dip to 1.4940 levels (max 1.4915)
From there we will get a recovery to 1.4995 followed by a final dip to 1.4860.
Remember that I had said a few days ago that we should start buying from near 1.4880
Do so in stages, because we will get a large sized correction from between 1.4860 and 1.4880.
But always have a stop. It is one thing to have a trade idea, and quite another to manage the position properly.


And on 10th March, I gave yet another complimentary update:

10 March 2013
Special update:
We bounced from 1.4885 to a high of 1.4958
I think we could come down one more time to test 1.4865. Either from there, or from 1.4840 area, we should see a recovery back towards 1.5020. Suggest that you start buying small amounts in this window and see if we can get a break above 1.4950! As this is still a counter-trend trade, you should only play small amounts.
Good luck.


Feb 252013


There have been some requests for updates in GBPUSD. However, I could not post them here earlier because they were being shown to the members of the Exclusive Club.
I am posting three of the charts now, and will post the complete thread once the trade is closed.

As you can make out, it was possible to identify key levels and direction using Elliott Waves. The last chart shows a sell level around 1.5340, and the Pound reached 1.5319. The target was 1.5080 and it reached 1.5073. There is more on the other website, but I will post those afterwards.
GBP 18Feb13
GBP 20 Feb
gbp 21Feb13

May 102012

The GBPUSD or Sterling Pound has been trading in an narrowing range since late 2008. So what is the medium term outlook for this currency pair? From an Elliott Wave perspective, we seem to be developing the ‘E’ wave within a triangle. Once this final upmove is finished, we should get ready for a significant down move in Cable, or the Sterling Pound. Now I have used a weekly chart to figure out the end of the E wave.

Maybe you could do better? Look at the daily chart and use the method I have taught in the book ‘Five Waves to Financial Freedom’. Send me your comments by posting on the blog and I will publish them. If you get the top right, you can showcase it to your friends. Share it with the world even if you think the Sterling Pound is going straight to the moon! After all, anyone can be wrong, and you could be right! Happy Holidays…..

Sep 042011

The Pound has finished a five wave move from 1.4235 to 1.6720. Hence, we will be looking for a correction that is bigger than either of the two corrections seen during the 5 wave upmove. All corrections tend to be in sets of three waves (or their combinations)

As wave A came down in 3 waves, it was reasonable to expect the B wave to go back to the start of Wave A (as a flat correction). I went overboard and suggested we might even look for a new high! That is not happening. For nearly 3 weeks, the Pound has been confined to a 400-point range. There is a growing feeling that we might get a sudden dip, just as demonstrated in Fig 12a in the Book.
But let us see waht happens around 1.6100 to determine if we are indeed already in the C wave. Don’t worry about the missed opportunities! We only want to get involved in low-risk trades.

Aug 212011

The Medium Term Outlook for the GBP/USD using Elliott Wave analysis is best figured out by starting your query from the longer term chart. A clear five wave decline from 2007 ended in 2009. That decline is being corrected in a 3 wave pattern, ABC. We seem to be in Wave C at the moment, and it will be invaluable information to the trader/investor/corporate treasurer to know in advance where wave C might end, and what will happen then. The three charts presented here shows you the way.
I have tentatively posted my expectation for the move to finish at 1.7010/1.7070 after which we should see a huge move down, perhaps back all the way to 1.4850 area. Keep an eye on WaveTimes as we will fine tune the terminal points as we get nearer the said targets. Your immediate clue is we are going up now, perhaps to a new high for this year, but just when you think it will keep going up, things will suddenly take a turn for the worse. Be prepared!

Jul 262011

Just about 5 weeks ago, while discusing the GBP/USD outlook, I pointed out that a leading bank was calling a head-and-shoulders top in the Pound, and they had gone short at 1.6133 with a stop at 1.6305. From an Elliott Wave Principle point of view, it did not seem right. By the evening of 23rd June, I was kicking myself for having stuck my own neck out on this matter, because clealy the GBP/USD has broken its neckline and going down rapidly. By 12th July, it had reached a low of 1.5780. Well, in the long run, everyone is right. But many of us also die! The GBP has come roaring back, vindicating the view that what finished there was not a head-and-shoulders formation, but some other beast. Who cares now, anyway. SOme of us have lost money on other trades in the meanwhile, right? However, there is a lesson for you here. Far too often, analysts tend to label a formation as a head and shoulders top, and how nice it would be if they applied some Elliott Wave brush on that picture.. maybe a different image will show up!

Jun 232011

Yes, the Pound is going down. It doesn’t matter that I dont think we posted a Head and Shoulders top there. I must have caused some of you to miss out a neat trade. Guess thats the price of being cautious.

Jun 222011

A leading bank and an active player in the FX market has gone short in GBP/USD at 1.6133 with a stop at 1.6305. Why? It is because they have spotted a head and shoulders formation! Over the years I have seen hundreds of ‘potential’ head and shoulders that trap traders into getting short at all the wrong levels. Now this particular formation may well work, and I would definitely get my eyes examined again for not seeing something so clear (!) if the Pound collapses..but I would rather spend that money getting my eyes checked than throwing it to the market in this instance.. you get my drift?

Anyway, a downmove to 1.6035 is definitely possible, but I will be surprised if we dont get a recovery from somewhere there, and if it moves back above the so called neckline, it is going to cause some people to revisit their charts. I certainly will revisit them if the GBP/USD collapses below 1.6000

Aug 082010

Are we going to see a test of 1.6170 directly? and If we do get there, will we get a 10-big figure decline from there? These are some of the questions that the Wavetimes watcher must be having. Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD suggests that so long we we stay above 1.5915 now, there is a reasonably good chance for a direct move to 1.6160-70. And if we do reach there without going first to below 1.5700, then the 1000 point decline will be delayed. The delay is a good thing because when the sell off starts from a higher level, it will still go towards 1.5130, which means the move will be greater than 1000 points by the extent the GBP/USD goes above 1.6170!  I will of course try and alert you as the topping signs show up. But for the time being, I think we should play it sensibly and refrain from being short until an evidence of a top is in place.