Jul 012012

There have been numerous requests for Elliott Wave analysis of the Indian Rupee or USDINR. Readers from India have been wonderstuck at how WaveTimes managed to identify a top above INR 54 last time, following which the currency pair dived to 48.60 in a few short weeks. This time, I am presenting you with a series of charts, most of the comments appear directly on the images themselves. The key point for you to know is we have some decent supports just below 55 now, and it is possible to see a recovery back to 56.50. Below 54.80 on a closing basis will expose 53.50. But in the current environment, if the markets are left alone to its ways (ie without any official intervention) we will almost surely get another chance to sell USD at more attractive levels than current.

Dec 152011

Just a quick one, to catch your imagination.
Whether you are trading the weekly charts, or the 5 minute chart, Elliott Waves work wonderfully well. You just have to acquire a feel for it, and you have won half the battle. See this example of the INR (Indian Rupee) which has come down in a nice five wave pattern today. If you are a day trader, you can spot similar opportunities in almost all well traded stocks or currencies.

Nov 302011

From an Elliott Wave perspective I don’t think that we have seen the end of the move for USD/INR yet. There is still a pretty good chance we will retest the recent highs of 52.75 levels. So if you are an exporter, there is no need to panic! My detailed earlier comment on INR still holds.Ramki

Nov 232011

Elliott Wave Analysis of Indian Rupees Daily ChartElliott Wave Analysis of the Indian Rupee should be of interest to you even if you have no interest in this currency! EVery post in Wave Times seeks to give you an insight on how to use Elliott Wave analysis to your benefit. The ideas that I share with you can be applied across all asset classes and you should focus more on the chart than what the chart represents. Often times I have analysed charts of stocks without the faintest idea of what activity goes on in the company whoes stock chart I was studying.

The Indian Rupee has caught a lot of corporations on the wrong foot. They know what mistakes they have done this time (which, unfortunately, will be almost the same mistakes that others had done in the past). So I will not explain that here.

Elliott Wave analysis tells us that the Rupee has some resistance around 52.78/83. If we close above that, there is a good chance to reach 53.60 or even 54.55. BUt such a move will be a great opportunity to put on structures that will alleviate some of the pain that these corporations have undergone. The reason is such a move will represent the end of an extended fifth wave, and as I have illustatred in detail both in my book as well as in this blog, when we see the end of an extended fifth wave, we should be ready for a profitable trade! A swift correction back to near wave 2 of the extended fifth should follow.

If you are one of those who advise your clients having exposure to the Indian Rupee, then do him a favor and pass this to him. You can’t lose because you can blame me if it goes wrong, and claim some credit if it works out!

Sep 182011

There have been many calls for an analysis of the Indian Rupee, which has recently seen a bout of weakness. I am often amazed at how importers and exporters alike are not able to take simple decisions about hedging at certain levels which make a compelling case for action. Perhaps they are misled by the cacophony of trader-like recommendations coming from banks and brokers that are seeking to get more deals on their books! Take a look at the three charts here, and you will see that any treasurer or finance manager should have been advised to act when the INR was near 44 levels. Ramki

Mar 112011

The CFO of a large corporation based in India asked me whether it is possible to analyze the USD/INR using Elliott Wave Analysis. His company has significant exposures to the foreign exchange market, and even a small move in the exchange rate of the Rupee will have a significant impact on the bottom line.

The answer to his question is a resounding YES. Infact, I have been advising many old friends in the banking sector for long not only about the USD/INR, but also about the OIS, or overnight index swaps, using Elliott Wave Analysis.

I am deliberately not publishing my most recent work on the INR because that is saved for a workshop that I plan to conduct soon in India. (Of course, a copy has been sent to the CFO mentioned above).

The purpose of this post is to share with readers that it is possible to apply Elliott Wave Analysis to just about anything that is traded widely.

P.S. I am going on a 2-week holiday to India, and so the next update will be only in April. Enjoy. Ramki

Nov 242008

The Indian Rupee is again above the 50 level, and both exporters and importers are anxious about its prospect. I had taken a stance several weeks ago that the currency is more likely to be at 45 than at 57. It actually topped out earlier around 50.25 and declined below 47. But now it has climbed back above 50, creating doubts about its near term outlook. Like in any market, we have to take a view in order to benefit from the analysis. There is nothing that has happened so far that negates the elliot wave count. The fact that the Rupee has come back above 50 is in line with the double-retracement idea discussed a couple of posts earlier (see the posts about fifth wave extensions). So don’t be surprised if the currency makes an about face and comes off as rapidly as it went up. Here is another chart to guide you. A word of caution here. No amount of wave counting, or Fibonacci analysis (or voodoo or astrology) can guarantee you what the market will do next. But we do have many precedents of how the market has behaved after a fifth wave extension, and so one has to take his/her chances. The best way to protect yourself is to have stops in place. If the idea works, you should have the confidence and courage to stay with the trade till your objective is reached. Only then will your having taken the risk be worthwhile. Best. Ramki

Nov 192008

On October 21, soon after we saw calls for the Indian Rupee at 57 to a dollar, I suggested we could be heading the opposite direction, towards 45.25. The idea was based on the Elliot wave view that after a 5th wave extends, we should get a sharp reversal down to the 2nd wave of the 5th. With the help of the Reserve bank of India, the rupee strengthened to about 46.75 and is now back near the 50 level. Clearly, both exporters and importers are anxious at these levels. While no one can be absolutely sure of the future, I would suggest that all we are seeing now is the perfectly normal Elliot wave pattern of a double retracement of the extended fifth wave. If the original analysis is correct (and I still believe that it is), we should see the Indian Rupee top out anytime now, (max I allow is 51) and to come down even more rapidly than what we saw the last time. Only this time, we will see it carry down all the way to 45.30. Now I know that this is a bold call. The safe way to handle your exposure will be to wait for the move down to start, and quickly join in after that. It doesn’t matter if you miss out the absolute top. It is more important for you to capture a good measure of the remaining move. So make your hedging/trading decsiions accordingly. Good luck. Ramki

Oct 212008

I have great respect for people who put in a lot of thought and come up with fundamental reasons why a certain move should take place. Thus, when I read a report from a leading (investment) bank that the Indian Rupee could reach 57 to the Dollar, I took the time to read it carefully. The reason why I read such reports is because a lot of other people also read them, and tend to believe them, and act on those views. Unfortunately, time and again, many researchers come up with forecasts when a move is almost over. As recently as 8th August, the INR was below 42, and today it is trading above 49. Don’t we wish that we were told of this move earlier? I am reminded of the calls for oil to reach $200 when it was trading at $145, and look where we are today. Similarly, there were panic calls when the Euro was approaching the $1.60 levels. Anyone who is told that the Euro will reach 1.75 when it was at 1.60 will surely panic. Having said that, I need to offer some other insight. Now let me caution you that I can be completely wrong, and these other guys perfectly on the dot. However, it is useful to temper your excitement/panic with a different view of the market. Let me keep it brief. I think we will not go above Rs.50.50 per dollar. And we will come down to around 45.25 quite quickly after we complete this up-move. Here are my charts, and you might wish to print this out and stick it along with the report for 57 per $ and give me a shout when we reach either level. At the very least, you would have taught me to temper MY own views! Cheers.

Will INR reach 57?

Will INR reach 57?