Jul 012012

There have been numerous requests for Elliott Wave analysis of the Indian Rupee or USDINR. Readers from India have been wonderstuck at how WaveTimes managed to identify a top above INR 54 last time, following which the currency pair dived to 48.60 in a few short weeks. This time, I am presenting you with a series of charts, most of the comments appear directly on the images themselves. The key point for you to know is we have some decent supports just below 55 now, and it is possible to see a recovery back to 56.50. Below 54.80 on a closing basis will expose 53.50. But in the current environment, if the markets are left alone to its ways (ie without any official intervention) we will almost surely get another chance to sell USD at more attractive levels than current.

Dec 152011

Just a quick one, to catch your imagination.
Whether you are trading the weekly charts, or the 5 minute chart, Elliott Waves work wonderfully well. You just have to acquire a feel for it, and you have won half the battle. See this example of the INR (Indian Rupee) which has come down in a nice five wave pattern today. If you are a day trader, you can spot similar opportunities in almost all well traded stocks or currencies.

Nov 302011

From an Elliott Wave perspective I don’t think that we have seen the end of the move for USD/INR yet. There is still a pretty good chance we will retest the recent highs of 52.75 levels. So if you are an exporter, there is no need to panic! My detailed earlier comment on INR still holds.Ramki

Nov 232011

Elliott Wave Analysis of Indian Rupees Daily ChartElliott Wave Analysis of the Indian Rupee should be of interest to you even if you have no interest in this currency! EVery post in Wave Times seeks to give you an insight on how to use Elliott Wave analysis to your benefit. The ideas that I share with you can be applied across all asset classes and you should focus more on the chart than what the chart represents. Often times I have analysed charts of stocks without the faintest idea of what activity goes on in the company whoes stock chart I was studying.

The Indian Rupee has caught a lot of corporations on the wrong foot. They know what mistakes they have done this time (which, unfortunately, will be almost the same mistakes that others had done in the past). So I will not explain that here.

Elliott Wave analysis tells us that the Rupee has some resistance around 52.78/83. If we close above that, there is a good chance to reach 53.60 or even 54.55. BUt such a move will be a great opportunity to put on structures that will alleviate some of the pain that these corporations have undergone. The reason is such a move will represent the end of an extended fifth wave, and as I have illustatred in detail both in my book as well as in this blog, when we see the end of an extended fifth wave, we should be ready for a profitable trade! A swift correction back to near wave 2 of the extended fifth should follow.

If you are one of those who advise your clients having exposure to the Indian Rupee, then do him a favor and pass this to him. You can’t lose because you can blame me if it goes wrong, and claim some credit if it works out!

Sep 182011

There have been many calls for an analysis of the Indian Rupee, which has recently seen a bout of weakness. I am often amazed at how importers and exporters alike are not able to take simple decisions about hedging at certain levels which make a compelling case for action. Perhaps they are misled by the cacophony of trader-like recommendations coming from banks and brokers that are seeking to get more deals on their books! Take a look at the three charts here, and you will see that any treasurer or finance manager should have been advised to act when the INR was near 44 levels. Ramki