Jun 252012
 

Ramki’s Elliott Wave analysis of Crude Oil appears on “Forbes” today.

  11 Responses to “Crude Oil Still Has Another 10% Price Drop In The Well”

  1. Hi Ramki, thanks for sharing your work and ideas, always a great pleasure to read!

    Just a question:
    As an alternative count – could that been wave A ending in 2008 being the start of big ABC or ABCDE, ( and a 4th wave of a bigger degree potentially lasting a devade or so)?
    Therefore we ahve seen a complex B from 2009-2011
    and currently witnessing 3rd wave of C that started in 2011 where you have pointed wave 5 finished?
    Many thanks

    • Hi Krill, just about any combination can be put forth as the markets are unfolding. The C wave with your approach could have its measure as 61.6% of the A wave ( as explained in my book). What matters now is to figure out the internal waves of the C and find out if the fifth of C corresponds to sme other measure. Then one is in business.

  2. Hi Ramki Good Morning. All of your posts are very interesting to read and I learn some important new thing in every post for eg. I had forgotten the target of the correction after an extended fifth wave.
    Thanks and regards
    Dr Sanjay Pote.

  3. Hi Ramki, Thanks for your kind reply yesterday. I wont argue with your analysis of WTI crude, but I prefer to look at Brent crude as I think WTI is presently influenced by special factors (stock capacity) which produce a historic diffence between the two futures contracts. If you use Brent as a guide you do get a new five wave high in March 2012 after a very nice fourth wave triangle from April to end 2011.

  4. Dear Sir,

    Part1:

    I am surprised at the wave counts provided by you on crude chart. It suggests that crude finished correction by end of 2008 (from high of $147.27 in July 2008).

    But, correction never completes in 1 wave, there must be 3 waves in a correction. That means, the fall from $147+ to $33+ was wave ‘A’ and subsequent price rise is part of wave ‘B’.

    But, you counted 5 waves in upmove from beginning of 2009 till May 2010 – this means this upmove is not wave ‘B’ (which always move in corrective manner, having 3 sub-waves).

    I would like to understand why this upmove should not be understood as wave ‘B’.

    Part 2—————————

    I have been watching crude oil chart since a few months and believe that we are in wave ‘B’ (started Jan 2009). Further, I believe crude price is in sub-wave ‘d’ of a triangle a-b-c-d-e that started forming on 2nd May 2011. And this triangle is sub-wave ‘b’ of bigger wave ‘B’ that started Jan 2009.

    Reason – I am unable to spot 5 wave structure in recent downfall from 27-Feb ($110.56 to 77.56), which means it is not C wave (which is always made of 5 sub waves) in an A-B-C correction. I should be at least able to spot 5 sub waves in bigger moddle part (supposedly 3rd wave in 4 wave move) of the move (between 30-Apr and 18-June).

    • Hi Dinesh, good question. All wave counting is a work-in-progress. I choose my labels that appeal to me most so long as no rules or guidelines are violated. I give it up when it ceases to be useful. The goal is to make money. Not to be correct. Your counts could be correct, but we won’t know until the move is over. So trade your counts, but be faithful to the rules that I have taught in my book

  5. thanks sir for long awaited crude update
    lets see for crude finish its c wave and start its new upmove
    Like natural gas,

  6. Hi Ramki,

    Crude rallied quite a lot today. Does this move change your view? Or now its safer bet for going short?

    Cheers

    Brian

    • Hi Brian, It was decent of you not to point out that Crude went 10% in the opposite direction! I think a safe level to start selling will be above $88. No,I havent changed my outlook for a test of low $70s later this year

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