Dec 132011
 

Elliott Wave analysis of Deutsche Bank’s stock price chart suggests that the decline into January 2009 finished with an extended fifth wave. Of all the patterns that one can use to anticipate future moves, an extended fifth wave is probably the most reliable. (See for example, Fifth wave extensions can make you rich)

The attached chart shows you how the internal waves of Deutsche Bank’s stock price movements are all related to each other, and it is fascinating, to say the least. We have already seen a relatively quick recovery to around EUR 55.25, which is, in my opinion, just the first leg of the move required to correct the whole sell off. Elliott Wave theory suggests that extended fifth waves experience what is known as a double retracement. What this means is the trader (or investor) should be prepared for a retest of the fifth wave bottom (occasionally even an overthrow!) But once the second test of the low is achieved, we will see an even quicker recovery than the first rally. The earliest target for the recovery is put at the wave 2 level of the extended fifth wave. This comes at EUR72 (or USD95 using today’s exchange rate).

For those who wish to see a fundamental view on Deutsche Bank, I suggest stopping by at Tefris.com

  2 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of Deutsche Bank”

  1. Hello Ramki

    I read your forecast for Deutshe Bank’s stock. Since then I’ve been watching this stock. A few days ago the price has risen above the wave 4. Is it possible that the price will move up to the area 59-71 from the current level.

    And, if possible, your view on the currency pair EURUSD. The movement from 1.26 to 1.3061 is the first impulse up or correction?

    • Hi Alexander, There is a growing chance that we are already on our way higher. However, there is initial resistance at around EUR35. See what happens there. It should not come back below 30.85 now for the bullish view to remain in force. (Overlap of minor wave 1). About the EUro, no change in view from my last post on the currency. Best. Ramki

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