Aug 072012
 

Is it possible to do an Elliott Wave Analysis of Egypt’s EGX30 index? Yes, of course. Take a look at the attached chart. You can see clearly that the second wave retraced wave 1 by 50%. That was followed by the third wave travelling just a shade over 161.8% of wave 1. We then got a 23.6% correction as wave 4, an early warning that wave 5 was likely to extend because the first wave and third wave were normal in size. Sure enough, the fifth wave travelled over 123.6% of the distance from points 0 to 3. Interestingly, the fifth wave finished with a diagonal triangle, a typical pattern that signals the end of a major move. Also, you can see the fifth wave is made up of 5 minor waves. The diagional itself has 5 tiny waves inside it. Everything fits perfectly into what Ralph Nelson Elliott told us to look for! Remember what I explained in my book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom”, that when we see an extended fifth wave finish, we should get ready for a speedy recovery back to wave 2 within the fifth wave. Look what happened with Egypt’s EGX30 index! Once the extended fifth wave was completed, we got a fairly quick move back to the second wave within the fifth wave. It always works like magic! Let us call that recovery wave 1.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Egypt's EGX30 index

Elliott Wave Analysis of Egypt’s EGX30 index

The subsequent correction should be made up of 3 waves, and this looks like its finished that too. That means we should get ready for a third wave move higher, unless the second wave itself was going to become a complex correction. Our clue will be with the speed of the rally. If we don’t get started soon on the upside, we will have to reckon with one more test downside, but as of now, the index looks positive. I think any swift move above the 5700 will encourage the bulls. Good luck.

  17 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of Egypt’s EGX30 Index”

  1. OEW always just simple and plain with you Dear Ramki Sir!!
    hope third wave will start soon so as to recover losses i made before being introduced to EW planet through your beautiful website.
    You always know the name of the game)))) All the Best!!

  2. Great analysis Ramki Sir, I bought your book on Amazon and have to say that was one of the best trades that I did this year.
    I’m not meant to abuse your good will, but could you please do the same analysis for the brazilian stock index, IBovespa?
    Thanks in advance, and hoping for your next book.

  3. Hi Ramki,
    There is something I am not clear about. we have bearish 5 wave count then ABC which is supposed to correct the bearish 5 wave count, how can C be lower than A? I thought C should be higher than A so we can have a correction.

    Thanks

    Basem

    • Hi Basem, Thats a great question and I am glad you asked it. Can a correction be made up of 5 waves? ie the move from 12000 to 3367. No. According to EWP, all corrections are made up of 3 waves. The A wave could be 5 waves if this is a zigzag. That means either my wave count is wrong for teh 5 waves down, or that move was wave A. Leaving that aside, the recovery to 7800 shoudl be labelled as wave A of a bigger ABC correction. So we will get a C wave higher and then we will see a bigger sell off to complete the bigger C wave. All that is in the Big Picture and by next week, most of us would have forgotten what i have written. So who cares about the big picture? WHat you need to learn now is irrespective of the big picture, you could have traded the whole move down from 12000 by assuming this was a 5 wave downmove. Likelwise, whether the rally to 7800 is a wave 1 or wave A, the next big move will be HIGHER, either as wave 3 or wave C. And it will have 5 minor waves. Go and trade that when the move starts. Forget about the big picture. Use Elliott to profit, to give you an advantage, a trading edge. Good luck. PS for all the others reading this response, I hope you start looking at the markets the way WaveTimes is teaching you to. That way, you will cease to be arm chair analysts, and become traders.

    • if i may reply, the 5 waves down is wave A. the pattern above corrected a previous 5 wave bull market not seen on the charts. best regards, nadir

  4. sir some update on euro and chf if possible.

  5. mr. ramki, i have read that corrections come in 3 waves. the wave labeled 1 must have been a typo when you actually meant to label it as wave B. sincereley, nadir

    • Hi Nadir, you are correct in stating that corrections come in 3 waves. Bear in mind also that ALL wave counting are ‘tentative’ until the move is over. We should have teh flexibility to re-label the waves as the moves unfold. Good luck.

  6. it looks like your bearish count on S&P is absolutely wrong.

    • Hi RX, Thank you for writing. I have been wrong on a few others too….however, it is not whether a particular analysis is right or wrong that is important. Anyone can be right or wrong. My approach to the markets is to have a view, and then work on it to time a trade that has an attractive risk-reward trade off.

  7. Dear Sir,

    I would like to thank you for the low pricing of the book. I
    have purchased it a month back and it has completely changed the way I look at
    charts

    I also read that corrections should be ABC so in this chart
    of EGX30 Index, I wondered whether
    the entire move from 0-5 can be labelled as (A) as mentioned by Nadir below and after the third move up, then
    we should get a bigger (C) wave down OR

    The 0-5 wave can also be counted as an entire ABC correction
    and the third move up should be looked upon as the intermediate of a new 0-5
    wave. I am asking this question as this chart is quite similar to the chart of
    SBI (State Bank of India)

    I would be happy if any of our readers could answer in case
    Ramki Sir is busy.
    Thanks,leeferns

    • i’m unable to read mr ramki’s comment. all i can see on the right side column is “hi nadir, you are…” item 34810? if someone is able to read it, please post it below i would be most grateful.

      leeferns, it looks like the correction is over. we have an impulse wave A (0-5), B wave (labeled 1 on chart) retracing 50% of A and finally a C wave (labeled abc on chart) ending diagonal (bullish falling wedge). the C wave retraced less than 61.8% of A so it was a failure which means very bullish. new bull cycle starting.

      • Thanks Nadir. Sorry even I am unable to read the comments on the right column

      • Nadir, I am not sure why my reply doesn’t show up..this is what I had said. “Hi Nadir, you are correct in stating that corrections come in 3 waves. Bear in mind also that ALL wave counting are ‘tentative’ until the move is over. We should have teh flexibility to re-label the waves as the moves unfold. Good luck.”

  8. Dear Sir,
    It’s possible an analysis for Gold?
    Thank you, Sir

  9. Dear mr Ramki

    Is it possible for a new analysis for the egx30

    Thanks a lot

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