Aug 302012
 

When we know that we are in the midst of a complex correction, we should expect the unexpected! India’s stock indices are a clear example. I have posted a few times about the NIFTY. Here is a look at the Sensex for a change. Elliott Wave and Fibonacci relationships abound. I have only shown you some of the main ones here in the BSE charts. Today’s post is to be used as a learning experience. One clue for you: I have shown the July low prominently in some of the charts. The reason is when we finish witha 5-wave pattern up, and then immediately get a new 5-wave pattern down, the implications are very suggestive. Enjoy.

  24 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of India’s Sensex BSE Index”

  1. Dear Sir,

    This was most desperately needed and you provided bang on right time. Thanks a Billion Billion for updates on Sensex.

    Almost 50% of fall was retraced today intraday.

    Thanks

  2. Hello Sir,

    Please tell me am I correct or not?
    As per the first chart…. from the low of 2008.
    Wave 5 has extended 100% so it should come down to the 13250( start of wave 5).

    Thanks & Regards,
    Abhishek

  3. SIR fantastic charting … I would like to know can a bigger degree A and B BE A WXY CORRECTION.
    6335-4720 = wxy correction = A
    4720 – ? = WXY = B
    is this assumption is possible than i think B wave can go to as high as 5950 and then the bigger degree C WAVE TO new lows.

  4. We can say a five wave decline at larger degree is therefore forming.

  5. Sir ,

    How far the correction can go as per your understanding & time period for same.Secondly when the Mother of all Bull market to commence.If you can guide for the same.Please give your guidance in layman’s language as you were giving previously since we cannot understand in technical language.

  6. sir,

    can we say that the fall next day to 5240 is b of expanded flat after 1 finished at 5255.

  7. My Dear Ramki Sir
    very timely the present study of Sensex. very generous of you as ever.
    all the best to you

  8. Dear Sir,

    Awsome – may be a correct adjective fot this analysis, what a convincing analysis !

    Using this as basline, I think I can now analyse and predict BSE index for next few years with precision.

  9. Sir,
    Excellent analysis.

  10. Dear Sir,

    I am unable to spot 5 tiny waves within Wave 5 that lasted between Q3 2009 and Q42010.

    Could you please indicate internal wave counts of this wave 5. If I were do count the same wave, I would not have figured out 5 sub-waves there.

    • Hi Dinesh, One of the reasons why people have different wave counts is because they are not able to ‘see’ the sub waves of a move. Don’t despair. Stick to what you can visualize and trade your hypothesis. At some point you will be proved wrong, just as I too will be. Until that time you can make money with your own count.

  11. Elliott wave is great gift to traders trading in free markets. But can it work equally well in manipulated markets? QE 1 to 3, operation twist etc should distort the wave progression. Ramki sir can you please clarify?

  12. […] Analysis, Elliott, Index, India’s, Sensex, Wave Investing Advisers Elliott Wave Posted on August 30, 2012 by Ramki […]

  13. I have gone through your book, it is excellent, but i didnt understand fully might have to go through again.
    I was wondering about current sensex/nifty wave, many see it has 3rd wave of C and as per your view it is C wave or start of A wave, right ?.
    For many month its going through complex corrections when will it end.

    • Hi Jinoy, You will need to read it again, and review it ever few months. Complex waves are not easy to solve as you will learn

      • I have a doubt can you clarify it, i know you are very busy person. Ill pleased to get a reply from an expert like you.
        As per your wave count on sensex, currently it is C wave in the first picture. But wave 2 of wave C seems to have retraced more than 100% of wave1 or about to retrace 100%.

        • HI Jinoy, The implication is that my tentative label of an end to wave ‘b’ there was incorrect, and we continue to gain ground as the complexity intensifies. My main advice here is not to be short India until a clear evidence of a top in place

  14. we have crossed now 18524 which was top of x wave shown by you. is it possible that we are still on X ? being formed in a-b-c shape and we are on c of x?

    according to my understanding of your charts we are retracing fall from 21109 to 15135. than maximum we may go upto 80% of the same?

  15. Hi Ramki,

    Can you tell me how to differentiate wave C from wave 3 as both have similar characteristics. I know its all the ‘feel’ that comes out of experience but there must 1 or 2 quantifiable factors. The reason I’m asking this – the sensex can be counted as wave c of B or wave iii of something else in higher degree. What gave you the ‘feel’ of this count? Was it the time taken or slope of the move… or..? By extension, Are you still seeing this move as wave c of B? Just trying to grasp the finer points of EWP from an experienced hand.

    Thanks & best regards,
    BJ

  16. When we hit the top (around 5850 – 5910 levels), we’ll enter a third wave down on the monthly chart, a C wave down on the quarterly charts and an A wave down on the yearly charts.
    The future is not bleak, it’s hell….. unless you know how to profit from it!

  17. Dear Sir,
    We all are missing your unbiased view on Indian Indices. Pls view charts as early as possible…….

  18. sensex corrected from top of 21109 to 15135. after that we moved up from 15135 to 18524( 3389 points up move ).
    from 18524 we came down to 15748 ( 2776 points )
    from 15748 we are in up move.so far we have moved up to 19137 ( today’s high so far – 3389 points up move )– same as first up move of 3389 points

    sub waves of moves from 15748 to 19132 are as given below.
    (1) 15748 to 17631 ( up move of 1883 points )
    (2) 17631 to 16598 ( dn move of 1033 points )
    (3-i ) 16598 to 17973 ( up move of 1375 points )
    (3-ii ) 17973 to 17251 ( dn move of 722 points )
    (3-iii ) 17251 to 19137 ( up move of 1886 points )—2.61 times of (3-ii), apprx 1.33 times of (3-i)

    so shd we correct now for the up move from 17251 to 19137 ?

    here i have taken waves as 1/2/3 for simplicity , it can be taken as ABC and we might have completed C-3-3 and we are on C-3-4 from today’s top at 19137 which should not go below 17973 and we may see final leg up ward as C-3-5 which must end below 20k to be specific 19914, 80% of fall from 21109 to 15135.

    your views sir?

    Pankaj Shah

  19. as per my expectation sensex has corrected from 19137 only and we are still correcting.
    on breach of 18500 zone we may see more weakness? to continue up trend 18k shd not be broken .

    your views sir?

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