Oct 172012
 

My detailed Elliott Wave analysis of Silver was posted via a video on You Tube on 8th October. That analysis is typical of how a general update in this blog appears. The aim is to teach people how to approach the market. The same goes for my comments on Forbes, MarketWtach or Seeking Alpha. Those comments are meant to give a general sense of direction. Occasionally, I might slip in a key level, but the trader would need the comfort of knowing whether the timing is right as the market approaches the anticipated levels. Take my Silver comments of last week, for example. I anticipated that we will come down to 33.16 when the commodity was trading around 34.45. Was 33.15 a good level to buy? It was not, because by the time it reached there, the market had revealed additional clues. A ‘relatively’ safe level to buy was lower down at 32.55, something which I was able to determine by the analysis produced here.
When it was clear that we are getting an extended fifth wave within the C wave of the fourth, I knew that the support was not at the 23.6% retracement level discussed in the video. A quick computation revealed that each of the sub waves within the C wave was respecting all the tenets of Elliott Wave Principle – details that you would have learned by reading “Five Waves to Financial Freedom”. For example, wave 2 was 70.7% of wave 1 as shown in the first chart to the right.
Wave 3 of the C wave traveled exactly 161.8% of the first wave.
The fourth wave recovered to the 50% retracement level of the third wave.
I figured out the target for the extended fifth before it got there by projecting a 100% measure as shown in the next chart. And I obtained added confirmation by analyzing the internal waves of the fifth wave of the extended fifth wave as shown in the final chart. At the time of writing this post, Silver has already reached 33.20. I received a few emails from readers that they have gone long of silver around 33.15 based on my video! First of all, please bear in mind that Wave Times is only there to teach. Secondly, we have to take into account new information as it comes up. And the nature of Elliott Waves is such that it is very dynamic, and allows us to adjust our focus as the subject is moving. When I launch my exclusive program for the high net worth traders, they will get more precise information, including a recommended stop level. I will also be able to recognize early if something is going wrong and share that intelligence with the group. However, the key take away for you is this. Learn my techniques, and you can do the analysis yourself. You don’t need any Guru to tell you what to do! More importantly, don’t risk real money on an update that is 2 or 3 days old, especially if you are a risk-averse trader who can afford only a small loss. Good luck! P.S. If you recall my various comments on how Extended Fifth Waves can make you rich, you will also know that sometimes we get a double retracement! But at other times we don’t! Watch Silver and learn! You should also learn where to take partial profits, how to adjust your stop loss etc etc! All the best

  13 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver – update”

  1. thanks ramkiji
    for your silver updates, i am in,,,,, my counts is match with yours, thanks god
    so as per your u tube count comments, we are on final fifth? which reach around 37$.
    am i right?

    i am happy to join your special membership,but i am in India where i trade in MCX crude and some time silver, and how i get benefited from exclusive membership?
    and your updates are mostly for Forex and other world markets, here we don’t have thos instruments to trade

    • Chauhan, As I frequently remind readers, this blog is where you come to learn EWP. Trading is different. It requires you to adjust your count as the markets move. Regarding the Exclusive Club, please visit wavetimes.net for additional information. Best wishes

  2. Dear Ramki,

    We love your techniques, and your analysis as well please keep the brilliant work you are doing professional.

    Ramki When will you launch your exclusive program (I think it is about time Guru)
    Best of luck to all.
    Cheers

  3. Hi Ramki,
    I’d like to take the opportunity to thank you for your great job in posting fre examples of EW here and also for your book, which I read and re-read continuosly. Looking forward to your next one! The only thing I’d suggest, if I may, is that it’s a pity one can’t print and/or but a hard copy, as, at least for me, e-books are not the best option to study a matter. Just an idea. May ask your thoughts on nat gas? Thanks. Regards.

  4. hi Ramki…..silver…based on macd and rsi momentum I think there is one more low to complete 5 waves down and reach wave C or A or 1..

  5. Hi Ramki,

    Thanks for FWTFF…i was able to go long @ 32.80s…though I had identified 32.50 as my buy target…couldn’t hold on. I am still learning. This is also an advice to fellow traders to carefully apply the principles thought in FWTFF, before committing real money. This action on silver was a great learning, where daily, hourly and even 5 mins chart perfectly followed the Elliot Principles..

    All the best for your new “Premium Service initiative”.

    Regards,

    Sushil

  6. Seems like the price did not follow your path and might go down more. But anyway, as you always mentioned the Elliott waves analysis is only a guidance, once you use it you should also learn to control the risks.

  7. Hi Ramki,
    A simple question here, for the wave 1, it looks like 3 waves. How can we count it into 5 waves.
    Thanks for your time!
    Mickey

    • Mickey, Yes. The hourly charts does look like a 3 wave pattern. Maybe it shows up as 5 waves in the 5-minute chart…I don’t remember now. However, as I just explained to Trevor on his question of what constitutes dangerous trading, all analysis is conjecture. Once you learn how to read the waves, you will know where one’s analysis is going wrong. Until it is proved wrong, you stick to your guns and collect profits.

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