Jun 122012
 

The chart for New Zealand Dollar offers some interesting patterns from an Elliott Wave perspective. (Many readers would remember that it has been possible to anticipate some significant moves in the Kiwi using Elliott Wave Analysis).

The attached chart shows that we could be unfolding in a double zigzag, with a long-term target of around 0.6800 or lower. For the immediate future, however, we should be quite happy with a 4.5% downmove to just below 0.7400. after that, we will look for a recovery of between 38.2% and 50% of the 5-wave decline that finished below 0.74. Once this correction is done, lookout for a sharp sell off towards 0.6800.

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD


As usual, you will find several more Elliott Wave notations on the chart itself. Observe the Fibonacci relationships and the underlying rhythm of the market. You too can learn these techniques. It just requires a little bit of effort to find the time to try it yoruself. Good luck. Ramki

  19 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of the New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi)”

  1. I would say welcome back hope you have enjoyed the leave.

  2. It looks so simple. I wonder when will I be able to analyze like this.

  3. What Dr Sanjay said is truly right, when we see Mr Ramki EW anaylsis it looks very easy and down to earth ; but when I start to do the homework I dont know how to start. I have purchased the book but still I dont know what am missing. Maybe Mr Ramki can put some more light on this and show us the first step to take when looking to any chart if possible with life case example so we will keep it as reference case for us. thanks

    • Hi Khalid, Thanks for the comment. I suggest that you read the book several times and also go through the hundreds of REAL examples in this blog. They were all mostly written before the moves took place. So you can see how I applied my techniques. You should also regularly read any replies I have given to others

  4. Hi Ramki,

    is it possible that you could show how to place stop loss level using Elliiott Wave?

    Regards,

    Basem

    • Hi Basem, that’s an intresting question too. A strictly elliott wave based stop will be when one of the 3 rules are violated. But often those levels could be far off, unless you are able to access shorter time frame charts. Hence, you may need to use a monetary stop, or sometimes a classical (Dow theory) oriented stop.

  5. Isn’t there a chance for the current wave A (after X) to be only 3 waves A, instead of a 5 waves A? Meaning that we would now be already in B, and then C will follow?
    Isn’t a wave count that suggests the same is possible in EUSU too?
    Thank you.

    • Hi Luca, I think you are in the right track, except that if you count the wave A as 3 waves, the wave B will go all the way back to the top (because it will become a flat correction as explained in my book). If you count it as a 5 wave finished, and we are in a B wave, then a 61.8% retracement could potentially suffice before sharp downmove as a C wave. No change in Big Picture

      • thank you!!
        this is important info that points to how much freedom, intuition we should be able to exercise in the interpretation of a move.
        I guess studying and enjoying the process will take care of learning in the long run.

  6. HI RAMKI,
    The nzd/usd posted 6/12/2012.seems wave 4 has not completed as mentioned.Is there a completion ahead i.e % measurement the book says as long as it does not enter price area of wave1 which is long way off.Are you a user off candlestick reversal patterns.
    Regards.
    peter.

    • Hi Peter, it looks like we have to re-label teh count as wave 5 already been completed and we are in the B wave now of the second ABC. There is no change in the Bigger picture.

  7. Hi Ramki

    Interesting analysis. Would your analysis still be valid were the price rise to above
    8000 (say to 8200) by end of week – would you still see it dropping to below 7000 ,
    and if so, within what sort of timeframe ? Do you see the current level as an excellent
    level for a short. If so, what would your stop-loss be, and also what risk:reward ratio
    would you be using ? Thanks for your informative posts.

    • Hi Patel, Thank you for the comments. Clearly we are already in the B wave, and the point I had indicated as end of the 3rd wave should now be deemed to be the end of wave 5 of the A wave. Typically, when Wave A is made of 5 waves, the ensuing B wave will seldom go back to the top, and usually fails at the 61.8% retracement.That level comes at 0.8080 which is where a low-risk sell level might appeal to me. HOwever, WaveTimes is not a forum to dole out trading advice, it is a place where traders can learn EWP! Good luck.

  8. HI RAMKI
    NZD/USD QUITE INTERESTING,THE 5 WAVE COUNT AS YOU SAY WAS ALLREADY IN WAVE A (ANOTHER SIGN THERE WAS A DOUBLE BOTTOM)AM I CORRECT IN SAYING CONSIDERING THE A=5 THEN WITH THE B IS A FORM OF ZIGZAG AND WE ARE NOW ENTERING C WAVE.IS THAT A FORMOF RULE WAVE A =5WAVES AND B USUALLY FAILS AT 61.8%.DAILY IS ALSO SHOWING HAMMER REVERSAL PATTERN WITH CONFIRMATION.
    REGARDS.
    PETER.

  9. Hi Ramki,

    Given today’s steep sell-off, would you say that Wave C has begun and it’s unlikely that
    the price will go much beyond the new top, if at all ?
    Thank You.

  10. A question Ramki,
    How do you resolve a discrepancy between the wave counts of two very highly correlated currencies, for example the euro and the kiwi in this case (but the question also applies to all type of trading instruments)? Shouldn’t both of them have the same count?
    Thanks for sharing your wisdom. It was very cool to see you in the forbes video.
    Best
    Dan

  11. what about aussie $ in relation to nzd
    ‘\thanks

    nzdaus

  12. Hello Mr. Ramki. The picture of NZDUSD has changed to much since you posted this forecast and as I am a elliot novice , I’m very confused, so do you count recent highs on 07.05.12 as wave 4 or as wave B?

    Thank you very much.

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