Jul 012012
 

There have been numerous requests for Elliott Wave analysis of the Indian Rupee or USDINR. Readers from India have been wonderstuck at how WaveTimes managed to identify a top above INR 54 last time, following which the currency pair dived to 48.60 in a few short weeks. This time, I am presenting you with a series of charts, most of the comments appear directly on the images themselves. The key point for you to know is we have some decent supports just below 55 now, and it is possible to see a recovery back to 56.50. Below 54.80 on a closing basis will expose 53.50. But in the current environment, if the markets are left alone to its ways (ie without any official intervention) we will almost surely get another chance to sell USD at more attractive levels than current.

  48 Responses to “Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/INR (Indian Rupee)”

  1. sir,

    how to distinguish between 3rd wave and c wave as both have 5 waves and both are quite fast.

    • Hi Shivan, PL refer to my book. But for most practical purposes it doesnt matter. what you need is to capture the movement to be profitable

      • The forth wave must not go below the first, so we should not go below 52.4 odd and then for the fifth which should target roughly 60.

  2. Hi Ramki,

    If I have grasped the concepts presented in your book FWTFF correct, a normal wave V (purple/blue wave V) will take USDINR to 64.8. Am I correct?

    Best regards,
    BJ

    • BJ, it is more important for you to grasp that we should take the market one step at a time. One possibility is the fifth wave of the current move is still not over. Another possibility is the whole thing can be a “C” wave..and on and on..the possibilities are endless and the analysis will become useless. So let us see if we can get the next move right.

  3. Hi Ramkiji.

    Thanks for posting USD/INR charts in details after a good gap of time. Not to challange your counts & with due respect to you, Personally I would slightly differ the markings you have made in last daily chart, that the 5th wave is over. What are the resons in your finding that the wave 5th is over.!? would like to know the same. Also sudden downfall in 1day proves the wave is over!?

    One more thing I have observed that all the time we try to get Fibo Retrachment mostly we mark point 0-3 & pt.4 to identify the level of 5th wave but in the said chart you have taken differnt marking & have ignored high level of point 3. Can you please explain that.

    Eagarly waiting for your Nifty/Sensex analysis as well.!
    Regards,

  4. Hello Ramki,
    Best wishes to you and your family.

    Where do you get hourly charts that go so far back.

    Thank you

  5. Hello Ramki sir,

    I was eagerly waiting for your posts on INR . Yesterday looking into your detailed chart was very informative. I had also bought your book on five waves to financial freedom . Still trying to learn the wave count and predictability. Please correct me I thought that wave 5 should have gone to 58.95. But it corrected from 57 levels.

  6. Dear Sir

    on your chart, major wave II ended in October 2010, while INR made a new high of 43.85 in July 2011. If we consider that major major wave II ended in July 2011, then major wave III has completed 1,2,3 only and we are in 4 of III right now. Could you put some light on this count?

    Thanks

  7. Hello Sir,

    thanks for your informative chart, i would like to have your view on INR movement in July & August 2012 ( support & resistance level)

  8. Dear sir,

    Yesterday INR closed below the support of 54.80 on closing basis Now it looks like heading towards 53.50 and 52 as per the wave . Pls give ur comments.

  9. Hi Sir,
    Thanks for a wonderful presentation on Rupee.

    Also,there is another code INR=IN on reuters which provides movements within the Indian trading time (9 am – 5 pm). In those charts wave ’2′ would have breached below the wave ’1′ start. Sinced i am tracking INR=IN, wanted to share with you.

  10. waiting for your detailed analysis on indian markets ……..either sensex or nifty…..

  11. HI Ramkiji,

    Its seems either you have forgoton or ignored my previous query. Please replay as soon as possible to understand the concept in better manner. the query was posted as below:

    Piyush Shah says:
    Your comment is awaiting moderation.
    July 1, 2012 at 8:20 am
    Hi Ramkiji,

    Forgotan to add in previous comment, While going through your long term wave counts marked on 1st chart you have market ’0′ point at the bottom of Novo7 & Ist wave complites on Mar09 & IIIrd wave has started from Nov10 & assuming complited on say June12, both are almost equi distance value wise, having covered around 13Rs. from their respective bottom, now can we assume majour V impulse when resumes after complition of corrective IV will be having minimum 50% of Rs.13/- & in more faster Time then of what has been consumed by wave I & wave III or it can be again Vth Failuare or Vth can be an Extended also, as both I & III are equi distance..!!?? Also wave II, seems to be a complex one, can we assume wave IV to be a simple ABC & in much lesser time of what II has consumed..!!!

    Please do answer as deep as possible to understand the concept of wave principles in better manner on current chart we are looking & discussing.

    With Regards,

    • Hi Piyush, my apologies for not approving your earlier question immediately because (a) I have been very busy and your questions required me to go back and look at my charts and that takes time (b) you have asked other questions that have been answered and there are other requests which are still pending..hope you understand! Wavetimes is your “living book” and it is an extension of “FWTFF” book. If you please go back and read that, you will realize your mistake about how to compute fifth wave targets. Secondly, be aware that ALL my wave counts and labels are only tentative. I can always change my mind and call it ABC in this case instead of I,II,III. The goal is to give direction and levels, not to be correct in wave counting. Good luck.

      • Thanks Ramkiji for taking out time, I understand that it is very much difficult for you to attend each & every query. Not an Issue.. :)

        I got some clue from your saying that you can change the count to ABC from I,II,III any time you may feel appropriate.

        Thanks once again for responding. :)

        • Hi Piyush, you are very welcome, and I appreciate your taking time to post your questions. My very best wishes to you in your efforts to gain a more thorough understanding of this subject. Ramki

  12. hello,

    im trying to buy the ebook but all 3 websites doesnt support my country ( jordan) ? any other way ?

    thank you inadvance

  13. Hey Ramki! Any updates on INR/USD? Looks like we’re at an exciting juncture with a breakout imminent. My problem is my difficulty in figuring out if this is a Wave 4 or a complex correction. Hence my inability to take positions either way. Please help me get more clarity with this. Thanks!

  14. Hi Mr R

    Excuse me for asking the question here. Please take a look at the USD/ZAR weekly graph. There was a correction that took place subsequent to the high reached on the 18 October 2008. The interesting and confusing part is that towards the end of the C wave, on the 30 December 2010 (daily chart) an upward movement occured that peaked 14 February 2011. Then after that a wave went down that was very slightly lower than the closing price or intra-day price from that move up ( 30 December 2010.) , that ended on the 28 April 2011. The quandary is this. If this was part of the downward C wave then the last wave down is overlapping and therefore cannot be an impulsive wave and not part of a wave 5. If it is a new wave up (wave 1), the UP wave is non overlapping so it cannot be a corrective wave, yet the subsequent downwave (wave 2) is now lower than the ” in wave 1″ which is not allowed in EW. It follows that the UP wave also cannot be an “X” wave. Any ideas? The only alternative is that it must somehow be an “A” wave. It doesnt even look like an A wave.

  15. Hi Ramkiji,

    Can we expect any update/view on INR/$ at current level from you?

  16. Hi !!

    I extract quote by you on the website mentioned below.

    “But in the current environment, if the markets are left alone to its ways (ie without any official intervention) we will almost surely get another chance to sell USD at more attractive levels than current” July 01, 2012

    “but I am waiting for another go at the upside to buy some more Indian rupees. My last remittance was when it was above 57″ “September 5, 2012 at 8:28 am”

    I have read the book five waves to financial freedom and keep reading the same. It is a real guide in this market.

    Rupee recorded high of 57.33 on 22nd June 2012. We see USD/INR closing at 57.06 on June 07, 2013.

    I read that dollar may record a new high against rupee but will not be able to sustain longer in the uncharted area.

    Breakout or no Breakout is the question?

    Will rupee continue to fall at an accelerated pace from current levels or will it retrace and regain its strength remains a question ?

    We will be grateful if you could throw some light and guide us to read USD/INR chart from here.

    Thanking you

    Satyaprakash Tiwari

  17. Dear Sir,

    As discussed in the book.

    I calculated targets for 5th wave rally. Form 39.28 to 57.33 is 18.05 and 0.3820 of 18.50 is 6.8951. Adding it to 4th wave bottom of 51.85 gives 58.74.

    I assume for the time been 58.98 recorded on 11th June 2013 is the peak.

    Slowly building short dollar positions but it is difficult to calculate the stop loss level.

    Is it correct to keep 58.98 peak as stop loss ?

    I have also calculated second target that 5th wave can probably reach is 61.80 percent and that is 63.00.

    Regards
    Satyaprakash Tiwari

    • Hi Satyrakash, the rules for computing the likely end of fifth wave does not guarantee the market will stop there. These are targets only. The racket could fall short or exceed these targets. So your next goal should be to learn that you cannot blindly sell at these targets. Trading is a different skill. Elliott wave analysis helps you become a better trader.

  18. Dear Sir,

    Rupee closed at 58.71 on Wed 19th June 2013 and it opened at 59.60 on Thu 20th July 2013. Five wave rally continues .

    Really Great book !!!

    A real guide in real world

    Thanks and Regards
    Satyaprakash Tiwari

  19. Can we expect any update/view on INR/$ at current level from you?

  20. USDINR already crossed 60, it is trading in V th wave of medium term, will it extend to 67 and then reverse to 51=53? or will it end at normal V wave near 63 and reverse…

    Robert Prechter explain degree of Wave like Supercycle to Sub-Minutte/Minute.. but period classification is not given..like Supercyle from 10 years to 100 years…Minutee from 10 minute to hours (please explain Wave Degree alongwith Period/Duration brackets)…

    Thanks….

  21. I wanted to know …
    1) how to select stock using elliott wave analysis for multiple gain or multibagger….
    2) how do scan the stock/chart to recognise 3 rd wave… as on the BSE there are so many stocks difficult to identify….

  22. Hello Ramki:
    Just found your article on USD/INR from 2012, and hence dated.

    I wrote this at the precise peak of USD/INR at 69+, calling for a drop to 62 which got achieved recently.

    Please review the article and let me know what your long term thoughts on this pair is. Thanks for your time.

  23. Hi Ramki,

    Can you please provide an analysis-opinion on Rupee. I found this while searching and Interested in your view regarding this article on Bloomberg (below) where citi analyst thinks Rupee will go to 45 0r even 40 if Modi wins. Hope you can provide a fresh perspective. Thanks!

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/rupee-gains-of-35-seen-in-decisive-victory-for-modi-currencies.html

  24. Please Update on USDINR on medium term and long term parameters… It long now last years you have given your view on it….

  25. I want to know the updates in usd/inr & gbp/inr as per elliott wave……where I can view this…..can u help me on this??……Thanks……..

    • Hi Nilanjan, If you look under the menu item “Forex” you will see a sub-menu for ‘INR’. CLick on that to see all posts related to the Indian Rupee. I haven’t posted anything on the INR in my blog for a long time, although I have offered consulting service to some large trading houses in India. The goal of this free blog is to share my knowledge with traders and investors.

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