In my Elliott Wave update of India’s Nifty Index that I wrote on 4 March 2012, I had anticpated that we will have some considerable weakness from around 5600. And indeed, we saw a decline all the way to 4770 by 4 June 2012. (See Looks like Indian stock market rally is fading: NSE India) I had suggested a target for the NIFTY index at 4355 in one of my more recent updates, and there are several readers who are asking about that call. They are pointing out that the index has recovered to 5290 and therefore are we going to see the weakness start anytime soon.
First of all, let me point out that the decline to 4770 happened directly after my March ELliott Wave update, without any recovery to 5290. The subsequent recovery to current levels is looking quite strong. Hence, I think we should refrain from being overly bearish at present, and instead focus on short term trading from the long side. There is a chance that we could drift higher to as high as even 5555, but the short term waves from the 4770 low need to develop some more twists and turns before we can place a definite target to the upisde. Once this current bullish sentiment wanes, I will re-evaluate the downside target and post my comments. One of the key benefits that WaveTimes offers readers is teaching you how to adapt to changing market conditions.Rather than trying to show how clever we are with wave counts, we should always attempt to figure out low-risk trading ideas. When you start thinking like that, you will transform your trading.