Jul 242012
 

Elliott Wave analysis could really give you an enviable edge in the market. Take the case of Australia’s S&P / ASX 200 index. The collapse from 6858 to the lows unfolded almost in a text-book like fashion. (You could say like the way the Elliott Wave book “Five Waves to Financial Freedom” explains the theory!)

I will spare you the tedium of having to read this text and invite you straight away to study each of the attached charts carefully. Elliott Wave worked like magic every time. Fibonacci relationships are seen everywhere. And it is possible to tell in advance where it becomes an attractive level to enter the Australian stock market for a sizeable move. Enjoy. And share with others.
(Tip: right click on each Elliott Wave chart and open it in a new tab. Then you can skip from one image to the other easily)







  24 Responses to “Elliott Wave update on ASX200 Australia Index”

  1. Dear Ramki…..would the EWA (iShares MSCI Australia Index) serve as an equity surrogate? Comparing the two charts shows some minor differences, but all in all, pretty close in price relationship.

  2. Hi Ramki

    I find this analysis interesting to consider as I was not bullish on the ASX. One “rule” I always look to in elliot is that once you get 5 waves in one direction you will always get another 5 waves. Therefore from the first chart we our first 5 waves down from the high, and from my analysis now in a correction waiting for the next five ways down, however I was always of the opinion that the correction from 6800 would get to 2700, so could be looking for things that aren’t there.

    What are you thoughts on the “at least two 5 waves” in a direction rule??

    • Hi Pacman, you have a valid point. This is where I depart from the mainstream practioner’s approach. For me, EWP needs to act as my trading edge. I don’t care if my count is proved wrong later on. So I will consider for the time being that the prior big down move marked the end of a major bear move, and we have seen a wave 1 up already. If someone says the prior big move down was a 3 waver, ok! We will agree! But if we used my technique we could have traded it!,

  3. Hello Ramki once again this is a wealthy pack of information. Thank you for free sharing of this wealth. With this regular teachings I have been able to be a better trader and just cannot imagine to trade without Elliot Wave application. Your book of 5 waves to financial trading changed my entire trading approach.
    Thanks and regards.

  4. Hi Ramki,
    As you have counted 2007 fall as an impulse 5 wave down, The corrective uptrend from 2009 low may be counted as a big ABC wave. Thanks for sharing wealth of information for free with trading community.

    Regards

  5. Hi Ramki

    Are we not on the verge of a major Euro rally that will drag most markets up? Or is this call telling us that the USD has a bit more strength left?
    Thanks and brilliant analysis as usual.

    • Hi Trevor, the analysis gives us some key levels to look out for. If and when the index gets there, we can take a quick look at the short term charts to detemine if it offers that window of opportunity where risk is low and rewards are great. If yes, we move in. Else, we keep looking at other opportunities with similar set-ups. What I have done is to lay down a broad road map. It is a framework to base your thinking on. Good luck.

  6. Hi Ramki,

    Very well appreciate your analysis for Aus index. Are you able to shed some light on Gold, i believe you had the view that it will go to 1300′s before breaking higher.

    Thanks in Advance
    Khan

  7. Hi Ramki, how about the audusd, is it the same chart with asx index?

  8. Hi Ramki,
    In first 2 charts, you have marked down move as 5 wave impluse so next upmove should be marked as ABC correction. But you are marking as again a 5wave impluse. is this means the down fall which marked as a 5 wave impluse is a represenattion of higher degree of wave C?

    • Sandy, I think my charts have caused some genuine confusion. Let me clarify for everyone. I have no idea whether that down move is a 3 wave or a 5 wave. I went with a 5 wave count because it worked! Unless u are an armchair analyst who does postmortem reports (after he move is over) you will generally use my techniques to count to 5 waves. Maybe that was the end of a C wave? But now that downmove is history. We are looking at a new cycle up. Will this be a 3 wave up or a 5 wave up? It doesn’t matter. We need a third step up, later on that is. This is what I would like to focus on, whether we will get a 3rd step higher and where from. This is what you too should worry about, not whether we will come off after we go significantly higher. Those types of calls are best left to others who specialize in making such predictions. We should concern ourselves with getting a trading edge, the WaveTimes way!

  9. Thanks Ramki… for clarification..

  10. hi ramki ,, i recently did 2 trades on the basis of of EWA , after reading u r book ,,,, i request u to go through the chart of Pantaloon retail( traded ) in india,,, the recent move was looking 5 wave up move with perfect -1-2-and 3,, surprsingly today i found that it went into 1st wave ( part of the 4th ) wave ,,,, my question is

    with such a powerfull wave 3,,,, how do we know that the pattern has failed —-( before it enters into 1st wave) —-the simple answer to me till date was — that we dont know till the 4th wave finishes —-which then means there is nothing we can do unless the wave moves above 3rd then 5 could also trunket and on EOD basis the 3rd wave travelled 161%

    it would also be interesting to hear your thoughts about 3rd wave being powerfull and even than it could turn out to be ABC—an answer to this would help trade practically

    with due regards

  11. G’day Ramki

    Wondering if you could elaborate on the “abc” of the second leg of the double zigzag correction you have identified on the ASX 200. You mentioned the wave “c” could end up around 3720 for 61.8% retracement or 3267 as 100% retracement. What would wave a and b roughly be like.

    By the way I find your book a fascinating read with wonderfully practical suggestions.
    I am trying to learn the book by heart.

    Kind Regards

    Green Trader

    • Hi Green Trader, (1) measure the distance covered by the first abc and compute 61.8% and 100% of that. Work on the assumption that X is already over (this is by no means guaranteed, but we need to have a hypothesis and trade that). You will see my targets. In a second zigzag, the waves a and c should again be 5 waves each. Finally, instead of memorizing the book, I suggest you practice with real charts! Good luck

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