Sep 122010
 

Our medium term outook for the Euro , ie EUR/USD, has been that after reaching around 1.3265/85, the currency should come off yet again, and perhaps test the 1.15 levels.(Refer to the updates on 18th July,  and also 12th Aug,  We got the rally to 1.3333, and a 5-wave decline to 1.2587 had ensued.  It is time to take a stand on whether we will continue to go lower as originally anticipated. Take a look at this chart. The decline from 1.3333 to 1.2587 has been corrected by a 3-wave move to 1.2920 (in a text book-like fashion back to the 4th wave of one lower degree).In order for us to conclude that the down move that has just started is the beginning of the next big move, we need to see accelerated selling. (This being a third wave should demonstrate the personality of that wave. Else traders should quickly exit short positions and wait for the correction to be completed on the upside). Considering the close was quite weak going into the weekend, it wouldn’t be surprising for the currency to go down to just below 1.2500 before a weak recovery can be seen. Now here is the important clue that Wave Times would like to offer you. In case the selling continues and takes the currency lower to say 1.2430/60, it would serve you well to step aside there and watch how the recovery unfolds from that level. If the recovery is very fast-paced, then the decline to 1.2430/60 would be part of an irregular correction, which means the “c” wave will take us back above 1.2920 once more before any big sell off could materialize. On the other hand, if the selling stops just below 1.2500, and the recovery is leisurely, then we should expect that recovery to falter around 1.2760, and a very fast sell-off to materialize, taking it down to 1.2175. As I will not have the time to update Wave Times in real-time, you need to take the initiative to watch what happens to the market between 1.2430/60 and 1.2500, and monitor the subsequent recovery. My preference is for the sell off to 1.2175, but I am also aware that the market is the master, and a humble wave analyst could only take some positions at key levels with an affordable stop and hope it all works out. The edge that I can give you is to point out the tendencies at these key levels, and to alert you where you should realize that things are going astray. So long as it works as planned, we should ride the positions and capture the ‘alpha’. Good luck all of you. If you are taking part in group discussions on the web, perhaps you can point out these comments to your friends and see what they say. Ramki

  2 Responses to “Elliott Wave update on EUR/USD 12 Sep 2010”

  1. hi ramki

    we seem to have a breaking down of correlations in the currencies. AUDUSD and NZDUSD seem to be gaining irregardless of risk condition. kindly advise your short and medium term perspective. is this a terminating thrust of wave 5? if so.. what is the target? thank you very much

    your comments on GBPUSD will also be appreciated. it is just hanging at the 152-154 level. inspite of bad economic data comparatively speaking.

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