Aug 302012
 

About 6 weeks ago, I posted my Elliott Wave Analysis of Reliance Communications LTD on wavetimes. At that time, the stock was trading at 63.40. A bearish case was presented to you, and I had requested that someone might kindly alert me if it dipped to around 44. Several readers have enthusiastically responded via email, facebook and twitter as well as through comments on this blog as the price dropped below $47. Should we still be looking to buy this stock near $42.25 as originally discussed? I suggest that we put in place our analysis of the most recent moves. I have now gone down to looking at the fifth wave in detail, and it looks to me like we have either just finished the third sub wave, or still in the process of doing so. Once we get a 4th wave bounce, I will be able to determine where a low-rsik buy order can be placed…Take a look at these charts and afterwards, be sure to stop by at my official website.
By the way, I think a likely scenario is going to be as follows: Because wave 2 was simple, we should expect wave 4 to be complex. We will probably get an irregular correction. Typically, when we get a new low, many of those who went long of the stock today will dump it thinking it will continue to go lower. Unfortunately, it will turn back immediately and go up as a C wave of the 4th. Just about the time when these same traders decide to go long again the market will turn around to go lower as a 5th wave, and once again these traders will be stopped out. That last time will be a perfect spot to go long….we shall see. Let us get the 4th wave finished, and I will try and update where one might think of going long. In the meanwhile, please do let me know around 44 and 42.25, the levels we originally indicated in the July analysis.
Best to you.

  22 Responses to “Elliott Wave update on Reliance Communications Lrd”

  1. Good Morning Dear Ramki. Congrats on your new website looks good .
    RCOM is also forming an End.Diagonal pattern in the 5th wave.
    Thanks and regards.

  2. Hello Sir,

    congrats on ur new website.

    sir the fifth wave within the wave three here in rcom as shown in the pic looks like a 3 wave move.

    ur insight on this will be really helpful.

    Amit

  3. May sound irrelevant but guess you may want to consider changing the currency symbol from $ to Rs. Mr Ramki

  4. My Dear Ramki Sir
    hearty congratulations for your new website. i have yet to explore it. yet i feel quite homely at your blog. website (indeed good) is a bit formal.
    thanks for the update on R-COM.
    very kind regards and all the best for your good health

  5. seems 44.4-41.2 is a good range to accumulate!
    but surely will wait for your updates to get in once it reaches around 44………

  6. but sir – rcom has a big debt on its books and the telecom industry is in doldrums!also with latest veritas report tarnishing its image, dont you think that only on the basis of the EW we should risk buying it @ around 44!!

    moreover, your EW analysis on other leading indices (dow and s&p 500) predicts a downfall in short term and indian markets are coupled with them, so naturally RCOM being so volatile and weak stock will go down further may till 31!!!

    also if any revival takes place within the industry or the globally, bharti airtel will find takers rather RCOM!!

    • Rahul, you are absolutely right, I am not suggesting that others follow what I might do when it gets to my targets..maybe I will change my mind:) remember that wavetimes is a place to learn Elliott wave analysis. I don’t give stock tips here!

      • i got it – no one strategy is fool proof and be used to enter a trade!
        one can use EW to get a bigger picture and enter a trade basis other TA techniques!

        btw sir – i tried doing it for bharti airtel. as i am new to EW, found it difficult to find a point of reference to start. it means every time i have start from the lowest point to find waves!

        could u come up with EW analysis on bharti airtel, when time permits. its my fav stock!

        thks in advance.

        • Rahul, Your first point is correct. But I didnt say enter a trade based on other TA techniques! EW tells you where you are in a move, both in the big pic as well as near term. Re Bahrti Airtel, i will try, Rahul. There are lots of other requests pending. As you know, WaveTimes is where you come to learn EWP so you could do the analysis yourself.

  7. I think, now we re in 4 th wave (abcde).

  8. ramkiji,i noticed something in the first chart of rcom dated 30/aug that you posted.
    where you labelled(3) could have been actually 5th wave of 3 complete.your (a) could have been the 4th wave and where you marked (5) of 3 near 46 odd was the end of the extended 5th wave.if that holds then we have missed the tgt of 42 that you had advised and rcom is on a rally now to 185.please advise

    • rajesh – this could be the possibility! there are always alternate counts in EW which when identified correctly gives you a definite edge over TA tools. but when not makes you look helpless!

      if ramki’s EW count of global indices is correct, then you will definitely find a high beta stock like rcom come down once again to these levels where you can pick it up!!

      btw on ramki’s advice on s&p 500, i am short on it since 1465!!

  9. Hi Ramki,

    I have read your book and want to practice shorting.

    RCOM seems to be moving rapidly, but without any extensions per se.

    Is it advisable to pick a top and short it?

    Thanks
    Anthony

    • Hi Anthony, thanks for writing. As you probably know, wavetimes is a place to learn Elliott waves and I am not offering an trading advice here. Besides, in order o practice, you should try paper trades. Boldly print out your counts and see if it works out. Good luck.

      • Hi Ramki,

        I am an Idiot!!!

        When I looked at RCOM on Jan 15th, I did my counts and I wanted to short the minor 5th wave only, of the major 3rd wave(if in impulse)/Wave C(if in correction). I took your advice, followed my instinct and made a ficticious paper short.

        Then on Jan 21st, RCOM was moving rapidly, then I thought of your charts you prepared earlier to join the trend, & to hell with my short, I bought @ 88.70, but since I am an amateur, I bought very little for practise.

        Now, RCOM has corrected the minor 5th wave to perfection(although irregular correction) and come to the top of its wave 1 @ 75.1 from @ 91.85, a 20% correction!!!

        DAMN, why did I not listen to my own counts :(

        Thanks
        Anthony

  10. SIR UR ANALYSIS IS ON A ROLL

    AFTER GOING TO 46.55 IT WENT UP UPTO 91.85 IN A 3 WAVE STRUCTURE

    AND NOW ITS ON ITS WAY TO 44 IN A FIVE WAVE STRUCTURE

    BUT SIR 61.8% OF THE DISTANCE FROM 0-3 i.e FROM 91.85 COMES @52.80 AND 100% COMES WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 28.70

    WHICH SHOULD BE GIVEN MORE PRIORITY WHETHER THE 61.8% OR 100% OR JUST A NEW LOW WOULD BE ENOUGH TO START THE NEXT BULL UP MOVE??

  11. ramkiji,after all i think you are the expert on this…rcom is coming down and is currently at 51.PLEASE ADVICE AS TO WHERE THE WAVE WOULD END.

  12. Can u give us Rcom ew counts from aug/sep lows of 2012 to till date……
    Previous lows were same as u predicted,so i want to know how it continued…..

 Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)