Jul 032011

We are in one of those times when we know the immediate move for the Euro is up, but are grappling with how deep will it move down after the current rally is over. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the decline to just below 1.4070 around mid-June could be termed a B wave (as I have done), in which case once we decline to around 1.4450 (from either 1.4615 or 1.4700), we should go up one final time. Alternately, the low of 1.4070 was only the first step ( or ‘A’) and once we reach 1.4615/1.4700 we should go down all the way to 1.4070 again. Given the complex nature of the moves, it is impossible to say with certainty which count is valid (until we get more clues). Hence, I am going to trade only for the short term, keeping an eye at 1.4700 for a failure there to quickly turn short. The EUR/USD chart that you see here has all the ingredients of a thriller(eg John Locke’s “Lethal People”!), the suspense of what’s going to happen next, the excitement of a 3rd wave sell off on a few occasions, the unexpected twists and turns of a complex correction, and what have you!!) Enjoy.

  4 Responses to “EUR/USD Chart Analysis”

  1. Thank you Sir for the headsup

  2. What are the chances that the entire pattern since April is a triangle, since its so complex.

  3. Another fail count! It fail many many many times! I think the Banks make a trap for the ordinary people like us! EUR just drop below 1.400. Go Casino :-)

  4. Good call there, I had precisely the same exact count! :-) maybe I should have come here sooner for some extra confidence since every one was breaking my spirit as they ALL thought i was a triangle. The 3 wave structure which lead to the extreme low in the chart above was CRITICAL. Everyone overlooked its obvious 3 wave structure. Sometimes as ellioticians we are blinded by the truth and discard it as irrelevent information. But great call there Ramki

    Ahmed Farghaly

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