Mar 062011
 

It is time to take a fresh look at the medium term outlook for the EUR/USD (Euro). My last update was exactly a month back (in February), but that gave a short-term outlook for the Euro (using the hourly chart) and the January update was looking at an even still shorter term (using the 10 minute charts!)
Those who have been trading the EUR/USD would know that our approach to the market using Elliott Wave Principle worked quite well in both these time frames.

Some of my large Corporate clients have requested for a longer term outlook and I thought it is a good time to share my thoughts with you too. By the way, I worked on my charts before I even read the news, and it is a good idea for you to know what the ECB President had to say: Among other things, he said “ECB’S TRICHET-EXCESS MOVEMENTS IN FX RATES HAVE ADVERSE IMPLICATIONS” – nothing new there! On Thursday 3rd March it was reported “ECB’S TRICHET SAYS RATE HIKE IN APRIL POSSIBLE, NOT CERTAIN, WE ARE NEVER PRE-COMMITTED” but on Friday he countered with “SOLID DOLLAR IS IN THE INTEREST OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY”. Perhaps he wants to hike rates, but doesn’t want the Euro going up too quickly? Anyway, let us turn now to what our charts say.
The weekly chart has become more positive with the close above the 50% retracement level. Of course, two closes will be more weighty, but that is too far away. We need something NOW, don’t we!

In my view, the medium term outlook for the EUR/USD is still up. I think we will at least retest the prior high at 1.4280 with a decent chance to visit 1.4374. More comments on the charts.

By the way, have you been to my facebook page yet? It is a great way for you to exchange notes with others who follow the markets. I also have a twitter account @wavetimes in case you are interested.

  2 Responses to “EUR/USD Medium Term Outlook”

  1. Thanks for your thoughts. I have been long on Euro since the beginning of this year. I believe the overall trend is UP and will be a strong one if it closes above 1.40 this week, which would break 78.6 of previous swing high low (in my count it’s wave 2 of (1) and currently wave 3 of (1) is in progress). My alternate count is, if Euro stays below 1.4 for another two weeks, it might mean the start of wave 3 of 3 of 3, obviously that would be very strong down move. But I think it has a very low probability of it happening. I wish I could attach the chart here for more clarification.

  2. [...] In my March 6th update on the Euro ( at which time the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3982) I had suggested that we will likley see a test of 1.4374. The high so far has been 1.4350. We might still get a final push higher, but from now on I will not be so bullish on the Euro as before. We will likely see a correction down to 1.4020 in the coming days. So use any recoveries to lighten up. Should we sell now for the move to 1.4020? No. It is still too soon. We might get a recovery again from around 1.4220, and you will get caught if that recovery proves too strong. Will let you know when the time is right to sell. [...]

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