Sep 162009
 

Gold 16Sep09

Every now and then I run into these situations when I have to revise my analysis of several instruments at the same time. The simple fact is NO ONE can forecast the markets. What one can do is to determine with a reasonable degree of confidence about the likelihoodof a certain pattern developing in the future. An honest practitioner of Elliott Wave analysis makes this plain at the outset. The markets are dynamic. We have to change as the markets change. Can one still claim that Elliott Wave analysis, (or ANY kind of analysis) offer value? I believe so, because one always has to remember that analysis and money-management go hand-in-hand. A proper analysis gives you a road map, so that you don’t drive blindly. Sometimes the map shows a road that leads to a bridge that has been swept away by floods. You cannot keep driving because you will drown. The map was right, but the bridge has fallen. So you have to take another road. With this in mind, let us turn to Gold.

There is support at the 1000 level and we are likely to stay bid until we reach at least 1067. If sentiment remains strong, we could even reach 1160. But from one of these levels, we should expect a set back. Eventually we will see a re-test of 850 and then 700. Everything depends on your time frame. If you have a one year time frame, you shouldn’t be surprised to see a dip to these levels. However, for now, you should remain bullish for a move to the said targets.

  4 Responses to “Gold shines”

  1. Ramki Sir,

    You might be aware that I am on vacation in India and I must thank you for this “Golden Post” which came at the right time. I saw this post as we were getting dressed up to buy Gold for my wife.

    I told her that Gold will be available at least 20% cheap in about an year’s time and showed this post to her.

    Thus, I could wave bye to Gold buy right now!

    :)

  2. Respected ramki Sir,

    I shall be highly obliged if your goodselves could let me know the medium term and long term targets for silver. I hope the disastrous effect of fifth wave extension in 2008, has
    completed in 2008 itself, unlike gold.
    Yours faithfully,
    Dhanpat Rai Khaitan

  3. Sir,

    I have been tracking your charts very recently and visiting here regularly adds to my learning curve.

    On Gold, if the near term view has turned bullish towards 1070 to 1160, then what would be the condition of the Dollar Index.Will it continue to drift lower? (The earlier significant low is near 71).

    But, the USD Index & Euro are already showing signs of turnaround.Please do comment on the same.

    Warm Regards,
    Muthu

  4. [...] a month back, I wrote in these pages that Gold will stay bid until it reaches at least 1069, and if sentiment remains strong, we could even see 1161. At that time, the precious metal was [...]

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