Jul 102011
 

NSEI outlookThe outlook for NSEI in the big picture is unchanged, in that we will eventually see it down to 4800. Investors should thus be patient for at least that level if they wish to purchase stocks for the long term. The recent gyrations must have tested all short term traders quite severely. Many must have become convinced that we are going down directly too late in the game, and turned short at all the wrong levels, with the attendant consequence of having to take a loss. Others who were waiting to buy must have bought near the recent highs after having kicked themselves for having waited too long (for the elusive 4800) and will likely pay the price when we get the inevitable move lower. And so the story goes.

Who really makes money (other than brokers)? While some will share with you tales of their success, they will not talk about their defeats. Be assured that trading is a game where everyone suffers at some time or the other. However, if one can choose to be a passive onlooker until the market reaches a critical level, then there is money to be made. There will still be some episodes of losses, but these losses will be manageable.

Coming to the chart of NSEI that I have published today, you will observe that the X wave has now been shifted to the right.  Is this the final version of the chart, you may ask. There is no way of telling. The recent rally to 5740 area (slightly higher than the ideal level of 5720) looks like a 5-wave move. So maybe we will get one more recovery after a dip. Your clues will now depend on the presonality of the waves that will unfold. If you don’t know about wave personalities, then I strongly recommend that you revisit the text book. If the sell off is quick, then you will stay aside. If the decline is slow, you will probably test the waters by buying small amounts at the 50% pull back of the recent rally. Remember, Elliott Wave Analysis is a trading tool, not a forecasting machine.

Good luck to all Ye Punters! I am surprised at the number of comments that the posts relating to NSEI have received. Thank you all for taking the time to write. I have been busy and not able to update as often as I’d like.

  19 Responses to “India’s NSEI outlook”

  1. Hello Ramki – Would it be possible to have a thread on BSE SMall Cap Index just like Nifty ? That will be great help.

    Many Thanks
    Ranjit

  2. The no of comments represents that we one very liquid futures market I guess. A question, since the 5 wave rally ends close to the falling trendline from Nov high I wonder if the 5 wave pattern is wave c of an expanded flat from the May 25 low. Should one wait it out or attempt such a possibility in your experience?

    • Rohit, What you are pointing out is a very real possibility, which is why I have asked readers to watch the speed of the decline. If it is a correction prior to another upmove, the decline will be slow. If it is fast, then we go to 4800 directly.

  3. Thanks for Updated sir. In Future nifty may be revisit to 5740 level, after that it will move down to Your level 4800. as per EW count Wave B retrace Upto 75% of Wave A. Current wave B running in form of a,b,c. Wave a already Done @ 5740

    I do Not expected 5945 level .

    thanking you

    Sam

  4. Sir, As it is fast decline from 5700 to 5500 till 12th july should we consider there was irregular ABC as “B” of second zigzag and now we are in 1st of final “c” …

  5. please update nifty outlook for short term , i am eagerly waiting for your update……….

    thanking you

    • Hello Sam, All indicators are pointing South, implying we will get the eventual move to 4800. However, I would like to see a close below 5300 now to be comfortable that we won’t get another move higher. WHatever happens,investors are better off waiting. It is only the traders who have to decide on immediate course of action. And a close below 5300 will be first signal that we should start selling rallies (if you havent already sold near the resistances discussed earlier)

  6. Dear Sir

    Wave c currently running in form or 5 wave , only 1,2 wave completed.wave 1 @ 5740 to 5496 and wave 2 @5496 to 5703, currently running wave 3 from 5703 to today low 5056,wave 3 possible retrace below 262 % of of wave 1.

    How to calculate EW count it will take Closing price or day low price .I am taking day low price in Wave 3 @5056,

    In future wave 4 retrace 38.2% of wave 3, but window(gap) formation in nifty chart @ 5333 range ,but wave 4 retrace only 38.2% mean not fill the window(gap) in chart

    thanking you
    Sam

  7. Any updates from Mr Prechter about new Sensex/Nifty highs ?

  8. Sir,

    Its a gr8 conviction

  9. Any update on nifty…should we start delivery based buying?

  10. Sir,

    Thanks for you Guidance. Target 4800 Achieved today.

    Best regards

    Sidharth

  11. Resp. Sir;
    Today your predictions have come true.Thanks to your analysis.Now what ? Do you see further downside or from here we are going to witness an up move that would take Nifty to a new high ? Please comment..

  12. Respected Sir,
    I am a swing trader and right now i am trying to learn EW trough internet. so i have refered about ur book trough internet so i want that book and i am living in baroda (gujarat) so what is the process to get that book so please inform me.
    HITESH SONI

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