May 082011
 

What is the most likely path the EUR/USD will take over the next few weeks? What does Elliott Wave analysis of Euro suggest at this time? I think we will find decent supports just above 1.4140 level and spend several days correcting the sell off. If indeed the moves develop as shown in the 3rd chart (below), then that will be a 5-wave sell off from the top. The implication will then be the EUR will have more room on the downside AFTER we finish the correction. We will try and identify the outer limit for the correction later on. But clearly a 5-wave downmove as shown (if it materializes) will mean the EUR has topped out for this summer.

  2 Responses to “Medium Term Outlook for EUR/USD EURO”

  1. With all due respect, I completely disagree with your current outlook. EURUSD hasn’t topped yet, and has just finished his 4th wave (600 pips slide is part of that) and has started its final 5th wave to move beyond 1.5 and probably reach 1.53.

    • Hi Nagarajan, One of the difficulties with using wave analysis is for there to be different wave counts that are possible at the same time. No one will know which count is correct until the move is over, and by that time it will be too late to do anything. To be honest, I have been wrong too, and usually when I am wrong, I am SPECTACULARLY wrong! Which is actually a good thing, because one could make back any loss by changing track as soon as it becomes evident of my error. Right now, nothing has changed in my MT view posted recently. Perhaps we have completed 5 waves already at 1.4308 and are correcting that decline. Then the correction can go back to 1.4580. But after that is finished, we will go down very quickly. Let us see. IN the meantime, I wish you good luck.

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