May 102012
 

The GBPUSD or Sterling Pound has been trading in an narrowing range since late 2008. So what is the medium term outlook for this currency pair? From an Elliott Wave perspective, we seem to be developing the ‘E’ wave within a triangle. Once this final upmove is finished, we should get ready for a significant down move in Cable, or the Sterling Pound. Now I have used a weekly chart to figure out the end of the E wave.

Maybe you could do better? Look at the daily chart and use the method I have taught in the book ‘Five Waves to Financial Freedom’. Send me your comments by posting on the blog and I will publish them. If you get the top right, you can showcase it to your friends. Share it with the world even if you think the Sterling Pound is going straight to the moon! After all, anyone can be wrong, and you could be right! Happy Holidays…..

  37 Responses to “Medium Term outlook for GBPUSD – Sterling Pound”

  1. Hello Mr Ramki, Why 1,64 you ask… I think there is an ABC x ABC in the D-E leg, and we should be completing 4th wave of the last C leg, as you explain in your book for triangles, so the 5th would take us to around 1,637, which is 61,8% of the 0-3 distance taken from the end of wave 4. It is very amazing I was not able to do anything like this three months ago before reading your book, and now with your great help I am starting to see what all this means. Thank you again!
    Antonio

  2. Hello Ramki,
    I follow the GBP and most of the FX currencies and I have the same ideia about the cable. The only difference is that for me is that the D wave of the triangle is not complete.
    The reason is that I think that the retracement is short of 61,8% of the C wave.
    Bellow is a link with my chart.
    http://dl.dropbox.com/u/6854752/Acertar%20na%20mosca/imagens/GBP%20Ramki.PNG
    I would like your comments
    Regards,
    David Gotlib

    • Hi David, I see your approach, but my wave D is related to wave B. In any case the more important point is we agree on the direction. As I keep saying, the goal is not so much to get the right labels, rather it is to get the trade right.good luck and thanks for writing.

  3. Your number comes from extending the upper boundary of the triangle right to intersect the upsloping support line drawn across the lows of wave E. Making wave 5 of C equal to wave 3 would put the top at 1.655. If equal to .618 of 3 it would land at 1.6344. Since the top of wave 3 is at 1.63, that’s as high as C is required to go, and a short wave E would not be uncommon.

    By the way, Elliott Wave International had their wave D at 11/6/11. I argued with my coach for the same point you chose (but without knowing you picked it). Based on the appearance of the subwaves of 5 of C of E, I don’t think E will go much beyond 1.63.

  4. Hi Ramki, regarding the top in gbp/usd, I would say we’ve already seen it at 1.63016 on the 30/04, this is due to the completion of the double zig zag in the $dxy, lets wait and see.

  5. Hi Sir.

    I think the E wave could end at 1.6452 or 1.6471

    on this daily chart: http://screencast.com/t/yr023OA2M

    you have Y=1.236 of W and the E wave on the larger degree equals to 50% of the C wave in the weekly triangle.

    Thanks,

    Yan

  6. Dear Sir,

    I calculated Wave E as follows: Point 0 = 1,52364, Point 3 = 1,57699, Point 4 = 1,6048, Point 5 (Fibo 79%) = 1,64695

    I hope this is correct, thank you Sir, I like your book FWTFF very much,

    Toni

  7. Is it possible that we have reached the E wave in 1.6300, as it has reached 70.7% of Wave D?
    Thanks.

  8. I’ll take a shot. From the start of A (1.3505) to C (1.67457) to D (1.52334), the fib extension is 38.2% or 1.6470. But I would wait and see if they run the stops on the shorts at 50%.

  9. Hi, I also agree on the direction and counting; however I want to mention smth.
    Truncation is very common for GBP/USD and thus a very probable end of E is @1.6300, also the triangle becomes invalid only after 1.6745, where is the completion of C. Thus, all fibo retracements in-between are probable.
    Weekly:
    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/406/gbpusdweekly.png/
    Daily:
    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/23/gbpusddaily.png/

  10. Dear sir,
    can u tell me about data that used for studying Elliott waves.
    true data all of mt4 have diffenrent data so I am very
    confused about the accuracy of any one set of data will I used for
    study.

    • Hi Dipkak, thank you for this important question. It doesn’t matter if your data is slightly different from someone else’s. Your wave count could be different from another person’s and both of you could still make money. Just be faithful to your own count.

  11. Ramki,

    What would be your suggestions for the top three books for experienced investors who are interested in learning about Elliot Wave analysis?

    Thanks,
    KJ

    • Hi KJ! I would suggest Robert Beckman and Robert Prechter as two good books. You can decide the third ;-)

      • KJ, there is another Elliott Wave book which is very clear and concise. It is not hard to find either. You can use your scroll bar at the right of this window to scroll up and find an image near the top of the page which links to an ebook. It is called Five Waves to Financial Freedom. Don’t let the inexpensive price mislead you into thinking it is not worth much. ;-)

        Kind regards,
        John

  12. Looking at EUUS chart “I think” this is not wave C, but still wave B.
    B has 3 waves. a of B went up to the high of 1.3486, we’re now in b of B and we had an irregular correction where b of B went below the initiating point of a of B.

    In b of B we can see a (first move down), then a 3 wave move up b, then, to complete, a move down c currently completing it’s 5th wave.

    I know this should be about GBUS, but they’re somehow related.
    What is your opinion Ramky?

    Thanx a lot.

  13. I think the high is likely now in for GBPUSD and a 135 test is most likely going forward over the coming months/years

    I have seen enough to suspect its a high probability of the highs being in place now

  14. I really appreciate your analysis Ramki;

    how far can the next corrective move go?

    • Hello Al, thanks for the message. My recommendation would be for you to learn the craft of Elliott wave analysis so you can figure this out yourself! Good luck.

  15. Hi Ramki
    I trust you have had a relaxing family holiday.

    Having purchased your book, and read it 3 times, I find it fantastic reading, simple and concise. Thank you for it.

    Please tell me – you mention ‘reflex point’ in the book and in your posts.

    How does one calculate the ‘reflex point’?

    Many thanks for your help.

    • Hi Steve, thanks for the comment. There isn’t any calculation. It is usually the minor fourth wave in the immediately preceding impulse wave.

  16. Hello Mr. Ramki,

    I greatly appreciate your clear analysis and your book.

    My first target for wave E would be about .5 of the length of wave C, (wave C length=.2510 X .5 = .1255). A .5 retracement seems best here because we have already passed .382 of wave C’s length, and .618 of wave C would put the price outside of the trend line. But my calculator says that would take wave E to 1.6489, which is a little further than your estimate.

    You looked both relaxed and rested in the Forbes video; I hope you enjoyed your time off and I hope your family is well. Congratulations on your daughter’s graduation (Forbes’ website mentioned this).

    I will be watching GBPUSD closely over the next few days and weeks. Waves A through D all lasted about 7-12 months, and triangles seem to go on longer than I expect, so I thought wave E was still unfolding. But the 5-wave move down since April 29th suggests we may be breaking out of the triangle, mostly because I can’t label this move as a wave b of E. I don’t think b waves can move in 5 waves, correct?

    Either way, it seems to set up a low risk, high reward trade, and I’ll let the market tell me which is right.

    Kind regards,
    John

    • Hello JohnW, Many thanks for your kind words. You are right in saying ‘b’ waves cannot be made up of five waves. Also, you are on the right track when you realize that at any point in time there could be multiple counts possible for an unfolding movement, and so long as one sticks to ONE count until that is proved wrong, he/she will usually make money (or at worst, keep the losses very small). Good luck.

  17. hello,ramki.
    thank you for your analysis.it is very useful for my learning EWP!

    Now,GBP/USD is going up to the level of previous high,
    So I am thinking this is “E” wave.
    If it is right, this pair will leach 1.64 level (as you said)
    then down trend will start…

    By the way, I have a question.
    is the diagonal formation “leading diagonal”?
    (3-5-3-5-3)

    • Hi Lilly, A leading diagonal will have a 5-3-5-3-5 set up. This has been covered in FWTFF. Good luck

      • woops,
        thankyou for your reply…

        I’m going to read your books again and again!

      • Ramki,

        Then GBPUSd could be on Wave E with 5 wave structure.

        If Wave 3 in Wave E ends at 1.63194 then we have Wave 4 in Wave E after leading triangle at .381 of Wave 3(1.5963). Then Wave 5 in Wave E at 1.6470/1.653. Then as you said the trend should towards 1.35 start.

        since Wave 1, Wave 2 took more than 2 months. Wave 4 and Wave 5 could be over in couple of weeks time.

        So shall I wait till end of Wave E? I want to build up the lost capital . Ramki, where should I make a Low risk High profit support point?
        I need your advice.

  18. Ramki,

    Looks like Cable thrust target is heading to your count.

    GBPUSD never went below D 1.5236.

  19. Ramki,

    As mentioned in your book FWTFF, if wave 2 barely completes 50% of wave 1 and wave 3 has completed 1.382 (wave 1) and wave 4 completes .382(wave 3) , then we can expect an extended wave 5 (wave 1 ~ wave 3) . GBP/USD just on track to confirm your theory. Do you agree? If so, good trading in GBP/USD expected 600 pip average. Looking for RSI confirmation.
    Regards,
    Ajoy

  20. Ramki,
    Simultaneously Eur/USD is also heading for 800 pip dive.

    Regards,

    Ajoy

  21. Hi,
    I think from this area (1.54-55) because we have a clear five wave from 1.6380 this is an excellent opportunity to catch a minimum 3 wave correction to upside with 1.6000 target.
    thank you

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