Aug 012010
 

I have no problem discarding a wave count that has served us so well since March of 2009. Likewise, the count I am presenting here will also have a life-span. Once its time comes, we will have to let it go too. The most important consideration is whether the waves are consistent with the underlying philosophy, and whether we are adhering to the rules and guidelines that Elliott had propounded. The previous wave count correctly anticipated a rally from 1.4226 to 1.5500. We are some 200 points above that top. But we also used a minor wave analysis to identify a resistance at 1.5655. So the slippage has been about 100 points from there, and we have not been hurt by that move. Now it is time to take an altogether fresh look at the charts. Here are two charts that I believe are quite clear by themselves. The current rally in GBPUSD looks like an extending fifth wave, and could eventually reach 1.6175. Howver, look for a minor setback around 1.5860, but more importantly between 1.5950 and 1.5970. Later on, from 1.6170, I might be looking for a drop of 10 big figures. But we will discuss that as we appraoch that top.

  2 Responses to “Medium Term update on GBPUSD”

  1. Hello, i still think we are in retracement mode… this could be the 2 of 5 of the decline from 2.1… it still fits… it is sharp and heading to 61,8% = 1.5865 of the 1 of 5… time will tell

  2. hi ramki.

    after todays events the retracement has so far been shallow of less than 38.2% at 157.2. typically, is the final trust protracted or truncated? given the extended 3rd of 5th wave has been unrelentless. also what is your take on the weakeness of USD against the major developed currencies, todays GBP and EUR has been telling. inspite their own weak domestic data.

    appreciate your views.

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