It’s been a long easy (!) road for the New Zealand Dollar, the currency that forex traders know more affectionately as the Kiwi. But it is increasingly looking like the honeymoon is over.
Take a look at the attached chart of the NZD that gives you an Elliott Wave Analysis of the currency. The New Zealand DOllar embarked on its journey back in 2009 from around the low of 0.4900 and it peaked on Aug 1st as 0.8840. That is an 80% appreciation, and I am sure exporters of the tasty butter and soft wool and healthy lambs must have been hurting all along.
Well, your troubles are probably over, because over the next few months, we should come off to 0.7970 initially, and shortly thereafter to 0.7760. Further out, we will see a continuation of the dceline down to 0.7170 area. Some of the unwinding could happen with a reversal in Gold, and also a decline in the price of Oil. COmmodity currencies should generally suffer in the process. But enough of the fundamental stuff. You already know my views in Oil – it will go down to around $71. So let us look at the outlook for NZD, or Kiwi.
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Hi Ramki, a question regarding your recent kiwi count. I wonder why you started the count where you started it, ie. in the middle of wave, ignoring the first wave up and its correction? If we include this missing part, then the count suggests that we have actually completed wave 3 and there is still one more wave up to go.
Thanks,
John
Hello John, Thank you for your comment. In my upcoming book I have described why I count from a certain point. But I will let you have a sneak peak. The reason is: In the long run we are all dead. If I have to make money, I have to try my luck while I can still afford to lose some. By taking a five wave count off a manageable significant low, I would be able to trade a time frame that makes sense to me, both from a P/L point of view, and from a practical point of view. WHo cares if we get a fifth wave up after 2 years when I may not remember today’s count, or worse, I could be retired , or still worse, I could be dead!
Hi Ramki,
Pretty interesting website. I am checking some of your posts and they are quite a good revelations. I would like to know your views and analysis on Gold (levels/forecasts?)
Cheers!
Hello Ramki, i would like to congratulate you on your book it was one of the best books i have read on elliot wave theory.
i would like to ask a question regarding the future direction of the nzd usd.
do you remain bearish? i have applied all the principles outlined in your book which seem to hint at a completed 5 wave pattern 85.70 – 74.70.
there are some strong fib relationships between the waves.
wave 2 50 % wave 1
wave 3 200 % wave 1
wave 4 38.2 % wave 3
wave 5 138.2 wave 1 and 50 % wave 1-3.
if we are still in a fourth wave its very deep and heading towards an overlap of wave 1.
thankyou for your time.
Hello Paul,
Thanks for the comments. I had sent a special update to all those who had purchased the book, and that update dealt with NZD in detail. I will send it off to you. Furthermore, there is a slight revision to the count and you will see from my next update on WaveTimes how I am dealing with it. You will also learn how wave counting is a dynamic process. Good luck.