Tesco (LSE) outlook using Elliott Wave Analysis

Tesco UK In today’s Financial Times, I read an interesting article by Paul Murphy that started off like this: “About 40 teams of sell-side analysts cover Tesco, the nation’s leading grocer, slavishly updating their forecasting models with every grain of fresh shopping info. Did any of those number crunchers fully anticipate the recent “strain” on Tesco’s profitability and the subsequent warning that profit growth in the coming year will be “minimal”? Not if the share price reaction is any guide: down 16 per cent on the day of the news” Here is the link That opening statement got me thinking. If we had looked at this chart a few weeks ago, what would have been our recommendation? Well, the chart is presented for you to study. Some of the non-believers might say that this is all after the fact. But our response to them is two fold. First, take a look at the hundreds of examples in this blog that anticipated prices before the event. Second, we are saying where this stock is headed – GBP 245, and we are giving some reasons for that. When an extended fifth wave finishes, we should look for a swift sell off to the second wave level within this fifth. Pass this on to your sell-side analysts, and certainly to your friends exposed to UK stocks.Maybe they haven’t heard of “Five Waves to Financial Fortune” yet! Enjoy!

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Posted in UK Stocks | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Bajaj Auto – Elliott Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis is a dynamic tool. We should not use it as a simple forecasting tool, rather as something which will guide our trading decisions. We should look at our charts, and make up our mind as to what is the most likely scenario. Then we sit and wait. If things don’t unfold as planned, we wait for more clues and take new decisions. EWP helps us at every stage. Take my comments on the NIFTY index yesterday. I pointed out a potential triangle formation. Just so that newbies don’t miss it, I added in clear words on the relevant chart that the formation could simply vanish tomorrow. We should never be surprised or disappointed if something like this happens. That is the very nature of the market, to take an unexpected turn! However, like a well trained dog, it usually comes back on track after the detour! In the meantime, we should not panic. Our goal is clear. To make money by taking low risks. While we wait for such a set up on the buy side, there are some interesting “Sell” candidates. I mentioned Larsen and Tubro a few days back. Today present you with Bajaj Auto. Bear in mind that these are short term plays.As always, you need to protect yourself with suitable stops. For example, Bajaj Auto could go as high as 1535, so you should also know where a good stop should be, and how you should build a short position. Trading is not the same as analysing charts. The winner is one who knows the art of money management. Even if you are not a master of ELliott Wave Analysis (to tell you the truth, no one is!), it doesn’t matter. Become a master of money management first. Simultaneously learn EWP. Good luck.

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Posted in Indian Stocks Trading | Tagged , , , | 13 Comments

India’s Nifty Outlook: Elliott Wave Analysis of NSEI

India's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia's Nifty Stock IndexIndia’s Nifty stock index has been moving sideways for a few days. Having staged a decent recovery from the 4535 level that WaveTimes had identified as a key level some time back, many readers are anxious to know if we have seen the bottom. As WaveTimes has a truly global following, I had to look at other asset classes before coming back to Nifty. The attached charts explains in detail my current thinking. Read, Enjoy and Share! By passing these comments to your friends, you are not only helping them, but also giving back to the trading community in your own way.

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Posted in India | Tagged , , , , , | 57 Comments

EURUSD outlook Elliott Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis of E|URUSDElliott Wave Analysis of E|URUSDElliott Wave Analysis of E|URUSDIt has been quite some time since I presented you with the Elliott Wave counts on the EURUSD using daily charts. My apologies to the WaveTimes faithfuls who had to wait for so long.

As always, I have more to say on the charts themselves. But I will leave you with one observation. In the last chart shown here, you will see an extended fifth wave that could potentially finish around 1.2600.(I have labeled it as an extension within the 3rd wave, but it could be the fifth wave in an alternate count) An extension is completed only when it is completed, i.e. it can keep going on and on. However, you should be alert for any signs of a reversal because if this was an extended fifth, you will get a sharp snap back to wave 2 of the fifth. This is why I might consider recommending covering shorts in stages as we approach the initial target. Later on, however, we should be looking to reinstate shorts because in the big picture the Euro looks firmly entrenched in the bear camp. Good luck.

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Posted in Euro | Tagged , , , | 9 Comments

Red Hat, Inc (NYSE: RHT) Elliott Wave Analysis

Elliott Wave Analysis of Red Hat IncNigam Arora is a market player whom I respect. He has recently suggested that Red Hat Inc should be watched because in his opinion the market is underestimating this company’s earning power and growth rate significantly. So I decided to check it out.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, however, I dont see any imminent prospect for a significant reversal. Yes, we could approach the prior highs, but just when the lay investor finally gets convinced that Red Hat was a hot stock, I suspect we will get some news or event that will act as a catalyst to send the price rapidly down to the $30 area. There are additional comments on the chart that should give you more food for thought. Good luck.

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Posted in US Stocks outlook | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

SSE Composite Index: Elliott Wave Analysis

SSE Composite IndexSSE Composite IndexIn my Elliott Wave analysis of the Shanghai SE Composite Index posted on 18 July 2011, I had warned investors of the likelihood of testing the 2100 levels. The chart posted on that day had a wave count that is different from what you see today. But if you have been a regular reader of this blog, you know that my approach to the market is one where what matters is the result, and not the labels. We should trade our theory and so long as the rules and guidelines given by Ralph Elliott are not violated, we shouldn’t worry too much.

Now that we have almost reached the said target, it is natural that investors would wonder if it was time to start buying. (And those who have been short to start thinking about taking profits!) Given the fairly aggressive selling we have seen from November of last year, I think the SSE Composite index will go down to at least the 2010 levels. Down there is a place to start taking profits on short positions. But a really attractive buy level would show up lower still, around 1800. If the index reaches that low, we would have seen an extended fifth wave, and such a formation makes my mouth water, because any reversal after completing an extended fifth wave will offer handsome rewards. Take a look at the attached charts and let me know what you think.

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Posted in China | Tagged , , | 9 Comments

Altria Group ready to lose 20% in value

I wished my well-meaning colleague a happy New Year and asked him how his portfolio was doing. He said it was doing swimmingly well. So I asked him what stocks he would recommend to me for the long term and he suggested to take a look at Altria Group. And boy! What a find!! I am thinking of what levels to sell this stock after taking one look at the chart! This is why.

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Posted in US Stocks outlook | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Ramki Ramakrishnan on Forbes

Starting tomorrow, I will also be contributing on Forbes. The content on Forbes will be different from what you read in WaveTimes. If you liked what you have seen here, it is very likely you wll enjoy reading my commentary on Forbes as well. It is easy to sign-up for that. Here is the link: Ramki on Forbes
Click on the +Follow Me just below my photo, and follow the instructions. Enjoy!

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 10 Comments