The Pound can still hurt you!

You might have been saved by my previous post but believe me, the Pound still has the potential for significant wild moves in the next few sessions. Read the chart for the comments.

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Posted in GBP | Tagged | 2 Comments

Should I sell Citi?

Some of you must have bought Citi when it was trading below $12. (see my post Let’s join the “Rescue Citi” effort! ) Sure I am looking for this stock to double in the medium term. But if you are like most traders who want to pocket some quick money, then be ready to sell on any move towards 14.50. I don’t think we will get past 15.25 this time, and would be more than happy to sell at 14.50 and wait for another dip to buy again.

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What is the outlook for SNP500

What is the outlook for S&P500 once we get the US Presidential Election results? This is the question that most traders of US stocks and options have in their mind. Let me start with the assertion that we are still in a bear trend in the big picture. Bear market rallies are common, and often take us up by 25% or more. But inevitably, the trend will reassert itself, and we will be back on our way down. So use this rally to get out of those stocks which you might have bought too soon, and wait for better levels to buy them back. As for sell-levels, well, I think 1045 should be a decent level to get out, but if we get to 1136 levels, I might even think of turning short on some weak stocks! To sum up, don’t overstay this rally in the SNP500 beyond 1136. Actually you should watch what happens at 1045 and run for cover if we start coming off from there. 

Related S&P500 links:

Was that the stock market bottom?
SNP500 revisited
S&P500 and Citi

Fifth wave extensions can make you rich!

What is a significant rally in the stock markets?

Harmony in markets: S&P500

S&P 500: Potential Ending Diagonal Triangle

Ending Diagonal Triangle in S&P500?

S&P500 Elliott Wave update

S&P500 index: is a top already in?

S&P 500 update: where is the top?

S&P500 continues its rally

S&P500 remains resilient

S&P500 ready to dive?

S&P500 Update: May 19, 2009

S&P500 Elliott Wave update:21 May 2009

S&P 500 breaks higher: update 2 June 2009

 

 

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Posted in S&P500 | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Should we buy Reliance Industries now?

The Indian Central Bank has cut rates, and Reliance looks well bid. Should we buy Reliance here? My response is No. We will see another dip in this stock and let us look at it again at that time. If you have purchased this stock when it was around 1000, then you should look to get out on this rally. I would be surprised if it stays above 1480 for long.

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Posted in Indian Stocks Trading | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Is Sterling headed back to 1.5250?

Having failed at 1.6670 levels, the Pound has come off by over six big figures already. Question is whether we will see 1.5250 soon? There is not much of a doubt that GBP/USD is in a bear trend, and some might think that all we need now is an overlap of 1.5934 to call a direct test of 1.5250. I would like to be a bit more careful in making that call just now. What makes me cautious is the sideways drift from the top. I would really like to see it come down a bit faster than this. Let us see how Asia handles the currency and then decide the next trade.

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Sterling whips around.

The Forex markets have been known to be very liquid. But today the liquidity was at its lows. Spread on GBP/USD was 15 pips wide for a mere 10 million quote even when London was in full swing. I imagine this must have been the case even yesterday in NY time because the currency just tore straight up. Can you believe it, but Sterling was at 1.6715 on Oct 22, down to 1.5265 on Oct 24 and back here at 1.6670 on Oct 30? This is crazy! Anyway, I am still of the view that Sterling will come off a bit from here. We will probably see 1.6350 in the next few sessions. I know fortune favors the brave. But it will be the foolish who venture into thin markets with big positions.

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A look at BP Plc

Someone wanted to me comment on BP. I am not sure whether she wanted me to look at the British Pound or the British major BP Plc. So I did both. Here are the charts for BP Plc.

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Euro hurts the bears

I had looked for Euro to find good offers at 1.3045 levels and recommended a sell at 1.3037 with a stop at 1.3057. The currency did not even pause at either level and reached a high of 1.3294. Every once in a while we will encounter such a situation, and you need to be prepared for it. The lesson here is (a) trade a position size that will keep you in the game  and (b) always keep a stop. The second point is especially important because many people think that a good analyst can ‘predict’ the market accurately most of the time. Unfortunately this is not true, What I am capable of doing is to give you a carefully evaluated report of what I think the market is likely to do. The key words are “think” and “likely”. True, I have been successful at calling lots of turns accurately. But there is no guarantee that the next call will be correct. So you really have to assume that every call I make is  judgmental, and hence the amount you risk should be just what you can afford to lose on that trade, yet keep you ready to take the next call! Here is your chart on Euro for today with comments on it. Enjoy.

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Posted in Euro | Tagged | Leave a comment