Oct 242012

Over the last four years or so, this blog has been presenting you with Elliott Wave Analysis of various instruments in a variety of markets. I have shared with you veritably a treasure trove of information, and have spent countless hours answering innumerable questions from young and experienced traders alike. All this went on despite having the responsibility of running the treasury of a bank. Whether I was at an airport waiting to board a flight, or by the seaside with my kids, I cared enough to give you freely of my time. So it was a great pleasure to see the spontaneous response from readers when I finally launched a paid service where I will share my trade ideas. Thank you very much. Some of you might be disappointed because I have pitched the price relatively high. I did that for a reason. I really wish to keep the number of members there manageable. Secondly, that service is meant for traders who are willing to be patient for the right kind of set ups. There is a bunch of people out there dishing out trading advice every day, and sometimes several times a day for much less. I don’t belong there, neither do members of our exclusive club. Having said all this, I wish to reassure you that this blog will continue to stay alive, because I have promised you that this is a ‘living book’ – an extension of “Five Waves to Financial Freedom”. However, you won’t find as many updates as before because of increasing demands at work and elsewhere for my time.

For many weeks now there have been numerous requests for Elliott Wave Analysis of India’s stock indices. Following the recent flash crash on the Nifty, that chart is screwed up. The exchange has refused to fix the price, even though the trades were cancelled. So I am turning my attention to the Sensex index. There are some interesting things to be noted in the following six charts. I would urge you to study each one of them carefully and see if you can follow how I think about these patterns. I don’t exclude anything. I approach the markets with an open mind, always aware that I could be wrong. I start off with an idea, a hypothesis. I look for additional clues that validate the hypothesis, and then decide where to get into the market. In this blog, I have repeatedly said that I am not offering any trading advice. You come here only to learn. Yet, the hypotheses are there, and if you were alert enough, you could have taken numerous low-risk trades that turned out to be extremely profitable. True, some ideas turned out to be wrong. But that risk is always there. A sound knowledge of Elliott Waves would allow you to choose very low risk entry points and this is why so many of you are attracted to learn it. Enough! Time to look at the charts. As always, there is more on the chart than here. Enjoy and share with others. Ramki.

Dec 212008

dlf-21-dec-08A reader has requested for technical analysis on the Indian Real Estate sector, and I chose DLF because it was first on his list. The current move looks quite strong, and all we need is a break past early resistance at 323 for it to continue to 408 area. I wouldn’t be short of this stock once we trade above 323.

Dec 012008

Every few days we will look at an emerging market stock. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratory has suddenly come to the limelight today. You will observe from the chart that this stock has been trading between two parallel lines for several days. Only once did it violate the lower line, but it closed higher. Now, we see that it has broken above the upper limit of the channel, and paused at the downtrend line.

Ideally, one would have preferred to see the volume to be significantly higher. Today’s volume of 67k is less than the 121k we saw last week when it moved down from Rs433 to 414. Yet, when a stock has just acquired institutional sponsorship (Goldman has added it to its conviction buy list), we should take notice. Allow for the trend line to break and for the stock to run into resistance at around Rs495. Then wait for a pull back to the breakout level and buy near there. Stops can be placed below the support line one can draw from its low at 387. Good luck!

Nov 032008

The Indian Central Bank has cut rates, and Reliance looks well bid. Should we buy Reliance here? My response is No. We will see another dip in this stock and let us look at it again at that time. If you have purchased this stock when it was around 1000, then you should look to get out on this rally. I would be surprised if it stays above 1480 for long.