Gold came off from near the 1895/1925 window, and for a brief while it looked like the recovery from near 1815 will indeed take us back towards the highs. But the recovery couldn’t be sustained. This is why I was warning you to be very careful during that recovery. Elliott Wave analysis tells you what is a high risk area, and for that reason alone, you should study it.
What are the odds that the top is in place already? I will put it at 50% at this point in time. The bubble is wobbling dangerously, and could burst. But don’t panic and sell here! There is minor support around 1680 that could hold. Either from 1680 or 1595, we should see a recovery. We will determine then what is a good level to sell.
Remember our goal is to determine low risk trading levels. It is more important to find the right level to buy or sell, than to make a series of predictions hoping some of them will be right!
For those who wish to believe that the bubble has already burst, I present an alternate count of the final fifth wave. This count was always there, but there is no point saying we will go to point A if a certail level holds, but if that level breaks, we will go to point B. THis is what you are used to hearing on CNBC and elsewhere on the internet. What matters is to identify key levels where one can trade. 1895/1925 was a sell zone. The dip to 1815 was a buy. Our stop should have been a few dollars below 1815.
I think any recovery to 1800/1815 now will find initial resistance, because that was the level we identified as a key support earlier. So if you are still long, (or if you take a chance and buy near 1680 or 1595), you will use any recovery to 1800 area to exit.
Where should we turn short? That will depend on how the next move unfolds. I will update if I am watching the market. But you too could use my techniques to figure it out. (By the way, my book is almost ready and should be available to you very soon)