Aug 252011
 

Gold came off from near the 1895/1925 window, and for a brief while it looked like the recovery from near 1815 will indeed take us back towards the highs. But the recovery couldn’t be sustained. This is why I was warning you to be very careful during that recovery. Elliott Wave analysis tells you what is a high risk area, and for that reason alone, you should study it.

What are the odds that the top is in place already? I will put it at 50% at this point in time. The bubble is wobbling dangerously, and could burst. But don’t panic and sell here! There is minor support around 1680 that could hold. Either from 1680 or 1595, we should see a recovery. We will determine then what is a good level to sell.

Remember our goal is to determine low risk trading levels. It is more important to find the right level to buy or sell, than to make a series of predictions hoping some of them will be right!
For those who wish to believe that the bubble has already burst, I present an alternate count of the final fifth wave. This count was always there, but there is no point saying we will go to point A if a certail level holds, but if that level breaks, we will go to point B. THis is what you are used to hearing on CNBC and elsewhere on the internet. What matters is to identify key levels where one can trade. 1895/1925 was a sell zone. The dip to 1815 was a buy. Our stop should have been a few dollars below 1815.
I think any recovery to 1800/1815 now will find initial resistance, because that was the level we identified as a key support earlier. So if you are still long, (or if you take a chance and buy near 1680 or 1595), you will use any recovery to 1800 area to exit.
Where should we turn short? That will depend on how the next move unfolds. I will update if I am watching the market. But you too could use my techniques to figure it out. (By the way, my book is almost ready and should be available to you very soon)

  13 Responses to “Technical Analysis of Gold”

  1. thank you sir for your guidance so can we clearify that final (v) has ended

  2. I just want to thank you for your invaluable work for all us! Your approach to the application of Elliot waves seems to really works and that makes it unique!. Looking forward to see your book!

  3. Sir, Apart from the views shared here,I am very much interested in the piece of advice that you throw here based on your experience. Although , am not commenting on every post, I do read them fully.

    One major thing which I learnt here is that you don’t stick to your counts and wait for the market to respect that count. Instead you are as fluid as the market and modify your counts as new patterns emerge. Also, you are very clear in pointing out that the goal is to identify low risk trading opportunities & making money from good trades rather than getting satisfied with a good count & forecast, the area where many Elliotticians fail.

  4. Brilliant Call on Gold. It required golden balls to call a short term top at 19xx.

  5. Isnt there lots of similarity that among commodities crude was the last to top in Jul 2008 and this time its gold in aug 2011. Also golds top in 08 and now coincides with a 5 wave decline in the dow Omenous?

  6. Hello Ramki

    How can I buy your book in Russia?

  7. Sir,
    Hats off to you for a absolutely tremendous piece of work in Elliott.
    “THE BUBBLE HAS BURST” – thats a true statement and its as a situation called SELL ON EVERY RISE. Looking over the chart and patterns it might go on for H&S pattern for further fall, But as per Elliott counts in concerned wave 5 is never bigger than wave 3. So, this point is striking in my mind, kindly explain regarding this.
    Thanks & Regards

    • Hi Yash, I would recommend that you read my post very carefully. I am giving it a 50% chance that the top is in place. Regarding fifth wave, the detailed explanation is in my book. Best wishes.

  8. Ramki ordered your book through amazon and read it non stop from start to finish,practicality of approach and simplicity is what impressed me about it,low focus on absolute theory and jargons was a plus point,keep the good work going,I just have one request can you please update your count on nifty?

    • Vishal,
      Thank you! As far as I know, you are the FIRST person to have purchased the book because I have not informed anyone other than my children that it is available for sale. I am glad you like it. Would you mind posting an honest review on Amazon, add some Tags (click T twice) and tell all your friends on Facebook and Twitter? That will be my request to ALL my freinds who purchase the book. Importantly, please mention how the book compares with other books you have read, in content, price and usefulness. Thanks again

  9. Ramki,

    I’ll buy the book shortly. Is a Kindle version available. Anyway, I’ll check with Amazon. Thanks.

  10. Sir,
    You are the best among those who predict gold silver on the basis of Elliott.
    Till now i was following the analysis on ecpulse.com .But u r much more accurate as i m following you from last one month.
    Now where does you see the gold in next 15 days….
    in hope of your reply…
    thanks and regards to you

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