Sep 082011
 

When we use Elliott Wave Analysis in real time, there are warning signs on the way that tell us that perhaps we are on the wrong track. For example, the three wave rally to 1920 that I originally labelled as an irregular B wave should have been followed by a five wave decline (as a C wave). As you know, C waves should behave like impulse waves. However, we are witnessing an overlap of wave 1 by a recovery that started from the end of wave 3. If this were wave 4, then it should not have gone above the bottom of wave 1. So clearly something is going wrong. (Even if one were sort near 1850, the loss is limited to just 10-15 USD because the bottom of wave 1 was at 1860.)

Next we have to figure out what could be the scenario where we get a 3 wave rally to 1920, followed by a 3 wave decline to 1890 and then a new rally? One possibility is an ending diagonal triangle. typically, ending diagonal triangles have its internal waves made up of 3 waves. If this approach was correct, we should see a three wave rally that will make a new high now.

Should we trade this move? I am very reluctant to suggest a trade when the directions are changing so very quickly. But if we are able to confirm that an ending diagonal triangle is indeed developing, then we might be in a position to identify the end of the major move more confidently. I will post that when it becomes clear. For the time being, I would like to figure out exactly why we have an overlap after 2 successive three wave moves.

  18 Responses to “Urgent Elliott Wave update on Gold”

  1. i think 2000 is getting attracted just like silver’s 50 earier in the year. 5=1 as per you current red lables will be 1975 or so. i don’t know since 3 is extended if 5 will too. also there is 22 months cycle- may 06 high 728, march 08 high 1033, dec 09 1227 so now it comes oct 11 (may top in sep itself with sep 21 fed meeting)

  2. hi ,good morning sir, its really great that every time you send update on every move . its realy amazing .and the best thing is your pattern of work on market. low risk and high return . if any one trades on every move on your update with a few dollars stop loss, then only profit is the outcome .
    thanx
    your follower
    harsh

  3. don’t know about gold but silver is forming a triangle.. very clearly visible on hourly charts….

  4. ” If this approach was correct, we should see a three wave rally that will make a new high now” – could be in this 3 wave rally – wave 1 – 1790 – 1887 = 97 wave 2 – 1887 – 1822 = 65 .. comes little more than 0.62 wave 3 – 1822 – 1919 – 1978 ?

    If goes below 1822 or mainly 1790 I think something else going on?
    mid oct to mid dec 2010 almost same thing happened. three tops 1388, 1424, 1432

    now we have 1917, 1923 and one more now?

    is this typical distibution pattern at top for gold?

  5. hi
    following site for last month..does ur earlier target of 2055 dollar in gold still intact or any upper targets are visible for completion of extended wave fifth

    • Ankit, my comments on gold are current on the blog.We will have to wait for the formation to finish it’s next leg before being able figure out possible end points.

  6. dear sir ,
    now gold once again come below 1790 . its means somthing wrong or these is a sub wave of wave b .or wave c is comp its jorney when it achive 1822 . pls guide all .
    thanx in advance
    your
    harsh dixit

  7. hello Sir,

    hope you are well. still reading through the book.

    Do you think it is possibly what is happening with the GOLD? still working on the 4th wave, and it is in the C wave of abc correction, now forming a falling wedge, above 1746.27 where the 38.2% of the 3rd wave, should start the 5th wave which will extend as it always do.

    see the below chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/tbBSbJDh0jc

    Thanks,

    Yan

    • Yan, sorry for the late response. Yes, what you are showing is also a possibility. Unfortunately, other than saying we are still in an uptrend in Gold, I am unable to confirm just now what formation will be seen next.

  8. Hello Sir,
    What should be a breakout point for the resume uptrend and v/v

    • Jeetu, As I keep saying, we are still in the uptrend. Below 1760 would delay the next leg up some more, but the top is not yet in place.

      • Hello Sir

        Thanks For Your Analysis…

        I Am Long On Gold @ 1773$ & Just made a high of 1814.4$

        Where do you see gold from here on, i feel it it crossed 1823.20 which is 20 DMA we will see new rally towards 1870 – 1882 odd level.

        Please Share Your Comments Sir

        • Shrikant, Thanks for your comment. While I am comfortable in saying the uptrend is not over yet, you will forgive me for not advising you on individual positions. If I start doing that, then I will be flooded with similar requests. Good luck.

  9. Sir Hats Offf To ur Work And ur Elliot Waves Anlaysis — i m Very Much Glad To Be A Part of Ur Viewers ..Sir i made Bumper Profit in Gold Sold@ 1855 Bot At 1700 –First Time in my Life Made Such A BIG Profit !!1
    Shall i Buy Gold Now @ 1700$
    Waiting For Precious Views !!

    Regards
    Manoj Kumar

    • Manoj, congratulations. My advice is you should not get emboldened by early success to ignore the methods you have learnt in the book. If you remain faithful to EWP rules and guidelines, you will continue to be profitable. Best wishes.

  10. Hi Sir,

    Sorry for posting again. please ignore my last GOLD post.

    Here is my revised GOLD wave count:

    4hrs: http://screencast.com/t/ndiyaYOqDa

    Daily Chart: http://screencast.com/t/qcx9QRhaWxv (thanks to your ‘extended 5th wave method’)

    I have also answered my own question, I believe we have see the top for GOLD at 1909.

    Yan

  11. Dear Ramki Sir

    Gold and Silver has taken a huge dip in the last 2-3 days. Considering the fact that we have just started reading Elliot we are not equipped to analyze the situation. It is my earnest request that if time permits please do comment on the latest situation on these two precious metals.

  12. GURU JI..ANY UPDATE OF GOLD & SILVER PLEASE

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