May 192011
 

One of the most common complaints against Elliott Wave analysis is that the wave counts are subject to change, and also the same graph can be interpreted differently by different analysts. The trouble with all this is the accusations are true! Why, my own Elliott Wave count of USD/YEN published in this blog on 12th April is being changed in today’s update. But anyone who has been following my work carefully would know (and others can verify by going back and checking) that my old count worked perfectly fine in judging the direction, and that is what is important to the trader! Yet, I am changing my count today…The bottom line is we should use wave analysis as a tool that guides us in the market, not as a black box that will produce massive amounts of money.

Onwards now to discuss the outlook for USD/YEN using Wave analysis…

In an earlier update (12 Apr 2011) , when USD/JPY was at 84.10 and still climbing, I said that we will fail at 86.90 and come down in a 5th wave to 77.80. However the rally fizzled out at 85.54 and the currency pair went down to 79.55.
The recovery from 79.55 has been slow, but sure. We have a hurdle within a stone’s throw at 82.55 and again at 82.95. Only above this can a dollar bull breathe slightly more easily. Failure at 82.55 will set up what I will view as the final leg down for the bears. You should also take note that I now consider that the cyclical low was posted at 76.30 and the next bout of weakness will complete a potential wave 2, setting up the stage for a massive rally in USD/YEN later this year. -Ramki

  14 Responses to “USD/YEN outlook using Wave Analysis”

  1. Dear Sir,

    Great Works !!! Me too consider the similar count but my more likley count is wave A and need to see wave B up here near 50% retracement of wave A. Also, considering the guidelines from elliottwave; correction can be halt near the previous wave 4 zone; and we are there. I really wondering the theory works for me since last two year. Still need to study and explore more.

    sir, also I would like to know the tool which you are using for the numbering. If you don’t mind; please suggest it.

    Thanks,
    Your Follower

  2. Dear Ramki, I am trying to understand the significance of 82.55 and 82.95 in reference to your comment of “two hurdles” Could you please enlighten me/us as to those levels of importance?82.55 is a 50% retracement of the length of wave A…..82.95 is the general area of the previous wave 4 top?

  3. Действительно, йена уже находится на развороте к ослаблению, Я хотел спросить, а вы пользуетесь фундаментальным анализом при расчёте волн Эллиота на основных парах. так как Волны эллиота создают люди, Волны на старших уровнях создают решения центральных банков, состояние экономики , на которые затем реагируют ртейдеры. И после второй интервенции началась третья волна. Так как структура А-Б-С в качестве 2 волны оправдала ваши расчёты, волна 2 не опустилаь ниже отметки 76.21 С уважение Александр

    • Здравствуйте Александр, спасибо за ваши комментарии. Хотя я обращаю внимание на основных экономических принципов, я использую Эллиотта Волновой анализ с чисто технической точки зрения. Это, как я могу знать, где держать стоп-лосса. Удачи ..(the english translation of that is
      Hello Alexander, thank you for your comments. Although I pay attention to basic economic principles, I use Elliott Wave analysis from a purely technical point of view. This is how I can know where to keep stop-loss. Good luck.)

  4. Hi there Ramki,
    I wonder if you have any comments or suggestions regarding the current interventions on jpyusd, and if you still believe there to be a potential rallying in the pair

  5. Hi Ramki,
    Just wondering what your thoughts at present are on this currency pair, as haven’t heard for a while and possibly has started switch you predicted. Also considering fundamentals of a struggling Japan whose currency continued to rise to record highs and is choking its post great recession manufacturing comeback.

    • Hi James, Yes, it has been almost a year since I wrote about the USDYEN in my blog. That is not to say I havent looked at it because many Corporate Treasurers have been in regular touch with me about it. I will probably write something about the Yen after my vacation. (PS I edited out your wave counts because the best place for that wil be the forum)

      • Just completed the fourth wave at 79.63 on May 01,2012. Completed a wave cycle that ended on May 7,2012 at 79.64 signifiying (2). started an interesting journey with possible immediate target of 93.456.

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