I have great respect for people who put in a lot of thought and come up with fundamental reasons why a certain move should take place. Thus, when I read a report from a leading (investment) bank that the Indian Rupee could reach 57 to the Dollar, I took the time to read it carefully. The reason why I read such reports is because a lot of other people also read them, and tend to believe them, and act on those views. Unfortunately, time and again, many researchers come up with forecasts when a move is almost over. As recently as 8th August, the INR was below 42, and today it is trading above 49. Don’t we wish that we were told of this move earlier? I am reminded of the calls for oil to reach $200 when it was trading at $145, and look where we are today. Similarly, there were panic calls when the Euro was approaching the $1.60 levels. Anyone who is told that the Euro will reach 1.75 when it was at 1.60 will surely panic. Having said that, I need to offer some other insight. Now let me caution you that I can be completely wrong, and these other guys perfectly on the dot. However, it is useful to temper your excitement/panic with a different view of the market. Let me keep it brief. I think we will not go above Rs.50.50 per dollar. And we will come down to around 45.25 quite quickly after we complete this up-move. Here are my charts, and you might wish to print this out and stick it along with the report for 57 per $ and give me a shout when we reach either level. At the very least, you would have taught me to temper MY own views! Cheers.
Will INR reach 57?
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Absolutely a brilliant call on INR. The bad thing about such a brilliant view is we traders “yeh dil maangey more!!”. guru
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Hi Ramki,
Came by your site-now i will visit regularly
Great work
Indy
Hi Ramki,
Great work ramki. I really like your analysis.
I am not sure where this i should be asking…But i want your Long term Views on GBP INR Pair ?
Rgds
Himanshu
Hello Himanshu,
Although the USD/INR could still revisit 50.25 (max 50.90), I think it will eventually come down to 45.00, or lower.
GBP/USD, on the other hand has resistances at 1.3950 and 1.4100, with a downside target closer to 1.3100 or lower. For GBP/INR, I think we have early resistance at 69.00 and more importantly at 71. It is going to take a while for sentiment to become positive.
Thanks Ramki for your analysis on GBP/INR. It will be great if you can give regular update about GBP/INR too. Thanks again.
Dear Mr Ramki, I would like to know your view on USD/INR for the next six months. Tks and regards
Looks like we have come down to the prior fourth wave in INR already around 46.40. This should allow for a “B” wave type of a move higher. However, how far it will go depends on various fundamental factors. (Remember corrections of corrections are always harder to play). If we get a flat, then we go back to the previous highs. Otherwise, a 50% pull back should suffice. We have to monitor as we move higher, and that takes time and effort!
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